New terror attack leading to India-Pak war; Pakistan–Afghanistan conflict and more: What may happen in 2026, according to top think tank

In its annual report released recently, the leading US think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said India and Pakistan could slide into another military confrontation in 2026, triggered by a terrorist incident targeting India and traced back to Pakistan-based groups. CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey said Pakistan could also face armed conflict with Taliban-led Afghanistan over border tensions and militancy. Other conflicts and wars that could continue, escalate, or simmer include US–Venezuela tensions, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the Gaza conflict between Palestinian militants and Israel. North Korea’s nuclear and missile activity could further inflame tensions in East Asia, while China’s pressure on Taiwan remains a major source of regional instability. Below is a snapshot of the CFR report.

India–Pakistan risk another war in 2026

The CFR global risk map places another India–Pakistan conflict as a dangerous possibility under its Tier II category, which covers contingencies with moderate likelihood and moderate impact on US interests. A new armed confrontation could erupt in 2026, with the CFR report, released on December 18, noting that the drivers of conflict, particularly terrorism emanating from Pakistan, remain intact despite the ceasefire reached after the brief military crisis in May 2025.

Continued attacks linked to Kashmir, military modernisation and force build-ups on both sides, and limited trust between would all contribute to the risk of conflict.

Even a limited terrorist incident could again trigger retaliation, miscalculation, and escalation, especially given domestic political pressures in both countries, the report noted.

Read more: Pakistan on brink: Conflict and terror-related deaths rise 73% in 2025, report says

Pakistan–Afghanistan: A high-volatility conflict

The 2026 survey introduced a new Tier III contingency, which includes the possibility of armed conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan. CFR noted rising security frictions between the two countries that could also indirectly affect India.

Afghanistan remains a hub for regional militant groups, and instability there could feed into Pakistan–India tensions, even if indirectly.

Such a conflict could be triggered by rising cross-border militant attacks, Pakistani strikes or retaliation inside Afghan territory, and weak border control combined with mistrust between authorities. CFR assessed this scenario as moderately likely, though with relatively low direct impact on US interests.

The Middle East: The most dangerous cluster

In the survey, the Middle East is described as the epicentre of global risk in 2026, dominating Tier I concerns. Continued or intensified fighting in Gaza, escalation in the West Bank, and a growing risk of spillover into neighbouring states are key dangers in the region, according to CFR.

Examining the Israel–Iran–Lebanon triangle, the survey warned of direct or indirect confrontation between Israel and Iran, as well as escalation involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. Attacks on energy, military, or strategic infrastructure are possible in this interconnected set of conflicts, which CFR considers both highly likely and highly impactful, making it the single most dangerous theatre.

Russia–Ukraine: A grinding war that would continue into 2026

CFR placed the Russia–Ukraine war in the top Tier I, with expectations of continued large-scale fighting, possible territorial shifts, and pressure towards a ceasefire that could lock in gains for Russia. The conflict’s impact would extend beyond Europe, affecting global energy markets, food security, NATO cohesion, and great-power rivalry, the survey noted.

From North Korea to the South China Sea and Taiwan: East Asia on the boil

North Korea remains a Tier I concern, with provocations such as missile tests, nuclear escalation, or military clashes carrying catastrophic potential if they draw the US, South Korea, or Japan into a wider conflict.

The South China Sea and Taiwan are listed under Tier II. Risky encounters between China and US partners, particularly the Philippines, are possible in 2026. Escalating pressure on Taiwan driven by Chinese territorial ambitions could fall short of full-scale war, but still prove deeply destabilising for the region.

American challenges: From conflict with Venezuela to violence in Haiti

Venezuela presents an extreme scenario of direct US military escalation and is listed as a Tier I contingency by the survey. The likelihood of a full-scale war is assessed as lower, but the potential impact would be very high.

Internal violence and governance collapse in Mexico and Haiti appear in Tier II, reflecting concerns about migration pressures, criminal violence, and state fragility near US borders.

Cyberwar: Another war front of the future

Strikingly, Tier I contingencies include the possibility of a severe cyberattack on US critical infrastructure. This could target power grids, communications, or financial systems, carried out by state or state-linked actors, with cascading economic and political effects.

For the US, the survey also highlighted rising concerns about domestic political violence, reflecting how internal instability has become part of global risk calculations.

Africa's most likely wars with the least attention

Sudan conflict is among the most likely to worsen in 2026, though it is listed under Tier III due to limited US strategic impact. Similar dynamics apply to conflicts in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Sahel states. These crises, according to CFR, could lead to severe humanitarian catastrophes while remaining largely out of sustained global focus.

A world harder to stabilise

CFR reached the stark conclusion that 2026 is likely to be more violent and more fragmented than previous years, with conflicts overlapping and mutually reinforcing one another.

While preventive diplomacy could avert some crises, political will and resources for conflict prevention are shrinking, it noted.