Israel's Operation Rising Lion struck Iran's nuclear facilities, but is Tehran's nuclear effort still intact?

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has confirmed that Iran informed the agency about Israeli attacks on two of its nuclear sites, Fordo and Isfahan.

Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting, Grossi said that “parts of the Natanz facility have been destroyed,” including “the above ground plant where Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60%.” He added that while there is radiological and chemical contamination inside some facilities, it is “manageable” with the right measures.

Natanz uranium plant suffers major damage

Grossi confirmed that the Israeli strikes had destroyed the aboveground nuclear fuel production site at Natanz. This plant was responsible for producing uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels.

Although the underground enrichment halls at Natanz were not hit directly, attacks on power supply systems may have damaged sensitive equipment such as centrifuges. Grossi said there is no evidence so far of strikes on the underground sections.

What was not hit, and possibly why?

Despite the heavy damage, large parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remain untouched. Notably, Israel avoided hitting Isfahan in the initial wave of strikes, even though it is home to one of Iran’s largest nuclear complexes and is believed to house much of the country’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile.

Western intelligence agencies have long considered Isfahan a major centre of Iran’s nuclear weapons research. International inspectors believe the site contains crucial material that Iran could use to build a nuclear bomb.

By sparing Isfahan, analysts believe Israel may be sending a message while holding back from fully dismantling Iran’s capabilities, at least for now.

Israel targets scientists and infrastructure

Alongside damaging facilities, Israel also targeted Iran’s human resources. A number of top military and nuclear officials were reportedly killed in the attacks. This follows a long-running Israeli strategy aimed at weakening Iran’s nuclear programme by eliminating the expertise required to build a bomb.

Still, despite the intense airstrikes, much of Iran’s nuclear material and infrastructure remains operational, raising concerns about what could come next.