In US-Iran war, the winner would be Russia. Here's why

Russia could emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ongoing Iran war under Trump, as rising oil prices and shifting sanctions policies reshape the global energy market. For most of the past year, since Donald Trump returned to the White House, Washington has tried to weaken Russia’s energy trade, arguing that oil revenues were fuelling Moscow’s war machine. The US targeted two of Russia’s largest oil firms with sanctions and imposed heavy tariffs on Indian exports in an attempt to pressure New Delhi and Beijing - two of Moscow’s most loyal energy buyers.

The strategy appeared to be working. Russian energy revenues had been under strain because of Western sanctions, high interest rates and labour shortages. In January, Russia’s oil and gas income dropped to its lowest level since 2020, dealing a blow to the country’s finances.

However, the escalating conflict involving Iran has dramatically changed the outlook.

Middle East conflict reshapes energy markets

US and Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted exports from one of the world’s most critical oil-producing regions, pushing global crude prices sharply higher. The surge has unexpectedly strengthened Russia’s position in the global market. Last week, the US granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver allowing them to purchase Russian oil that had been stranded at sea. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver was intended to keep oil flowing into global markets during the crisis.

He also indicated that Washington could ease certain Ukraine-related sanctions on Russian oil if necessary to stabilise global supply. The shift could allow Russian crude to command higher prices. Until recently, Moscow had been forced to sell oil at discounted rates due to Western restrictions. But as supplies tighten, major buyers such as India and China may turn increasingly to Russian shipments with tacit approval from Washington.

Kremlin moves to capitalise

Russian officials have been quick to highlight their country’s role as a stable energy supplier. “Russia was and continues to be a reliable supplier of both oil and gas,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, adding that global demand for Russian energy products was rising.

At the same time, Moscow is positioning itself diplomatically in the unfolding crisis. Following a phone call with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed ideas for a “quick political and diplomatic settlement” to the conflict, according to his foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov.

Kremlin aide Kirill Dmitriev struck a more triumphant tone on social media, writing that the “oil shock tsunami is just beginning” and criticising Europe’s earlier decision to reduce dependence on Russian energy as a strategic mistake.