FACT CHECK: Trump made EXPLOSIVE CLAIM on Pakistan conducting nuclear tests. What are treaties, accountability and monitoring systems?

US President Donald Trump has claimed that Pakistan has been conducting nuclear tests, besides Russia, China and North Korea. Speaking in a CBS interview, Trump suggested that these nations are expanding their nuclear capabilities through testing. His remarks implied a potential escalation in global nuclear tensions, sparking questions about their accuracy, and making many wonder what mechanisms are in place to monitor nuclear activities.

Is Pakistan actually conducting nuclear tests?

As per historical records, Pakistan conducted two nuclear tests in May 1998, following India’s three nuclear tests earlier in the same month. Since then, there has been no verified proof of Pakistan conducting nuclear explosions. But speculation has arisen over the years based on seismic events and unusual lenticular clouds.

Accountability and verification of nuclear tests

The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversees nuclear material safeguards but does not directly regulate nuclear tests. Neither Pakistan nor India is a signatory to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which prohibits all nuclear explosions and establishes international monitoring systems. This means Pakistan is not formally constrained by CTBT's provisions. Potential nuclear tests are verified through seismic, satellite, and radionuclide monitoring. This is coordinated by agencies such as the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

Distinction between test types

It is important to distinguish between actual nuclear explosive tests and tests of delivery systems like missiles, submarines and aircraft capable of carrying nukes. Russia has focused on testing deliverable systems, without conducting full nuclear detonations.

Historical nuclear tests by country

The US remains the country with largest number of tests, totalling 1,030. The former Soviet Union carried out 715 tests, while China has conducted 45. Britain conducted 45, France 210, and North Korea six. The combined total of nuclear tests worldwide stands at 2,056.

Out of these, 528 were conducted in the atmosphere, mostly before the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty. There have been 1,528 underground tests.

Can Pakistan conduct tests secretly?

Conducting a nuclear test is hard work, not to mention the secrecy. Extensive preparation, instrumentation and strict safety protocols are required. IAEA and CTBT have guidelines on such nuclear activities. This involves selecting a geologically stable and isolated test site, environmental monitoring and prevention of radioactive contamination. CTBT signatories are also required to report the test for international verification. Being a non-signatory of the CTBT, Pakistan is not legally bound to report nuclear tests, but a real test could be identified using the technologies mentioned above.

How are nuclear tests monitored and reported?

The 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty banned atmospheric nuclear tests, while the CTBT of 1996 bans all nuclear explosions and established a global monitoring network. Note that the CTBT has not yet entered into force due to pending ratifications. Meanwhile, the IAEA, which monitors nuclear material, can detect potential nuclear explosions.