Jagmeet Singh's political obituary is being written, but the Khalistan movement he supported thrives in Canada

2025 Canadian federal election - Jagmeet Singh's loss: Mark Carney, the incumbent prime minister, won the recent Canadian federal elections, but for observers of India-Canada relations, the key candidate was Jagmeet Singh. The New Democratic Party (NDP) leader emerged as the worst loser, far from his earlier role as kingmaker. Carney will lead a minority government of the Liberal Party. Singh's loss may be result in a sigh of relief for Indian decision-makers, given his blatantly open support of the Khalistani separatist movement. 

Singh, as the backer of the previous Liberal government, literally made the former prime minister, Justin Trudeau, dance to Bhangra tunes to cling on to power. NDP is not going to be the kingmaker for some time. But it is too early to write the political obituary of Jagmeet Singh. And the Khalistani movement, which he supported and is his political capital, is alive, and will be kicking for some time in Canada.

Singh's defeat is being seen as historic, as NDP even lost official party status. Singh himself lost his seat in Burnaby Central, and resigned as NDP leader.

After the April 28 elections for 343 seats, the NDP won seven seats as against 25 in 2021, and only 6.3 per cent of the popular vote, down from 17.8 per cent in 2021. Since it did not win the required 12 seats, NDP lost official party status. 

If there is one factor that helped Carney, and went against NDP, it would be the constant taunting of Canada by the US President Donald Trump. He teased the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state of the US, and followed it up with a trade war. This created a kind of national unity among Liberal party voters, with US-Canada relations -  not so much domestic issues - becoming the key election issue.

So, one can argue that the NDP's loss didn't happen 'under normal circumstances'. Singh's political fortunes could have been different if it were not for Trump.

In choosing who could be a good counterforce to Trump, the Canadian voters were split between the Liberals and Conservatives, leaving NDP by the wayside. It is clear from the almost equal popular vote received by the Liberals and Conservatives.

Out of some 59 seats that flipped parties, all went to either Liberals or Conservatives.

Carney was able to rally the people against Trump rhetoric, proven by the popular vote of 41.6 per cent for the Liberals, which is much higher than 32.6 per cent it got in 2021.

Eventually, the Liberals won 169 seats, just three down from the required majority. 

The Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre came a close second with 144 seats and an impressive 41.1 per cent of popular votes, which is very close to that of Liberals.

But then, Poilievre lost his own seat in Carleton, Ontario, a shocking upset. 

It was the Conservatives who gained from the NDP’s epic fail, yet they could not win the election.

The Bloc Québécois party won 22 seats, having lost 13 from its 2021 tally.

When Jagmeet Singh became the leader of NDP in 2017, it was a proud moment for many Indians, at least at the start. He was the first Sikh, indeed the first person from a visible minority in Canada, to become the leader of a national party. That he came from a community once shunned in Canada in the 20th Century added sweetness to his rise.

The former Ontario MPP, often featured in luxury magazines for his sense of style, was compared to Barack Obama in the US. 

In 2022, his agreement to support the Liberal government of Trudeau was seen as the peak point of his power. But by then, Trudeau and his government had become unpopular. 

As mentioned earlier, it was not an election where NDP was a key player.
The electorate was mainly divided between the Liberals and Conservatives.

 It is being observed that there was 'strategic voting': in order to keep Conservatives away from power, many NDP voters may have cast the ballot in favour of Liberal Party candidates.

Singh was personally targeted with attack ads. He also bore the brunt for having kept the unpopualr government of Trudeau in power.

Eventually, his campaign failed to convince the voters, and he finished third in his own seat of Bursaby Central.

The NDP's performance - down from 24 seats in 2021 to seven in 2025 - is the worst since 1993, when it won nine seats under the leadership of Audrey McLaughlin.

NDP's popular vote was down to 6.3 per cent from 17.8 per cent in 2021.

The NDP stronghold of British Columbia was among places where it lost ground. In Vancouver Island, it lost five out of six seats.

It was totally trounced in Ontario, having lost even seats like Hamilton Centre, which it had held for over 20 years.

According to reports, NDP lost favour among urban and working class Ridings, some of which were won by Liberals and Conservatives with double-digit margins.

Singh’s stint as NDP leader was showing signs of fatigue in the runup to the election.

Losing traditional bases like British Colombia and Ontario was a major concern: NDP won no seats in Ontario, and suffered losses in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island.

Losing the official party status is going to be a big blow for NDP.  It means a cut in funding and research support. The party will get less speaking time in the House of Commons. NDP will have lesser representation in key committees, which is crucial for building influence. 

Singh could not convert some of his policy victories as the junior partner of the Trudeau government into votes.

His support for Khalistani separtaist movement in Canada impacted his image as a progressive leader.

The party will now have to go back to the working class and progressive constituency it has lost, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.

There is some hope that, with Singh gone from the limelight, India and Canada can improve their relationship.

But it is far too early to predict that Singh is done and dusted as a leader.

in his concession speech, Singh hinted at the NDP rising up again, using the Sikh concept of  “Chardi Kala” (rising spirits).

In no other time in Canadian political history did the Khalistan movement become such a key issue as during Singh's tenure as NDP chief. By now, that movement has gained momentum. It would take some effort from Indian policymakers to change their course in Canada.

While Singh's exit, for now, as the NDP leader is the 'end of an era moment' for the party, his presence will be crucial for its rebuilding.

To that extent, it is too early to write his political obituary.