Explained: Nagorno-Karabakh's decade-long conflict that has kept Armenia and Azerbaijan on edge

Azerbaijan, on Tuesday (September 19), launched a military operation against the Armenian-controlled Karabakh regionin a bid to bring the breakaway region under its control by force, sparking fears of another war with its neighbouring Armenia in the volatile Caucasus region.

Azerbaijani strikeshave reportedly killed dozens and injured hundreds and garnered criticism from the United States, France, Germany and so on. Russia, the traditional power broker in the region, has been accused of being too distracted by its own war in Ukraine.

While Karabakh is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory, part of it is run by separatist Armenian authorities who have claimed the area as their ancestral homeland.

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Azerbaijani strikes affect thousands

According to the separatist officials more than 7,000 people from 16 villages had been evacuated since the strikes began.

“Over 7,000 people have been evacuated from 16 civilian communities of Askeran, Martakert, Martuni, Shushi regions of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh,” said Gegham Stepanyan, Karabakh’s rights ombudsman, on X.

Media reports citing Karabakh separatist authorities said that at least 25 people had been killed, including two civilians and 138 others had been injured after Baku launched the military strikes. However, these claims could not be independently verified.

Ruben Vardanyan, a top official in Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian administration until February, said, “A really serious situation has unfolded here…Azerbaijan has started a full-scale military operation against 120,000 inhabitants, of which 30,000 are children, pregnant women and old people.”

The officials in Karabakh also claimed that Azerbaijan pounded the territory with artillery, combat aircraft and attack drones and said that their forces were “trying to advance” into the territory.

Baku about the military operation

Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, said that they have deployed ground forces and broken through Armenian lines in several places. The claim has been denied by Armenian separatists saying that “fighting continues along the entire line of contact.”

Azerbaijan intends to “close a chapter of animosity and confrontation,” said Hajiyev, adding that they no longer tolerate having armed forces on their territory which “on a daily basis, challenges the security and sovereignty of Azerbaijan.”

The Azerbaijani defence ministry also claimed that their forces have seized more than 60 military posts and destroyed up to 20 military vehicles with other hardware.

“Illegal Armenian armed forces” must surrender, said Azerbaijan’s presidency, adding that “Otherwise, the anti-terrorist measures will continue until the end.”

It was not immediately clear if Armenia would intervene or if Baku’s actions would trigger a full-scale conflict dragging in Yerevan.

The two countries have fought two wars since 1991 – the fall of the Soviet Union – over the disputed territory, with themost recent one being in 2020 which ended after a Russia-brokered ceasefire.

Unrest and calls for coup in Armenia

Armenia is dealing with unrest as angry protesters clashed with police in Yerevan calling for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign. More than 30 people were injured in the clashes, with 16 people hospitalised, said the Armenian health ministry.

“We must not allow certain people, certain forces to deal a blow to the Armenian state,” said the Armenian PM, in a televised address. He added, “There are already calls, coming from different places, to stage a coup in Armenia.”

He also accused Azerbaijan of engaging in “ethnic cleansing of Karabakh Armenians” and said that the Armenian army was not involved in the fighting and described the situation at the border between the two countries as “stable”.

How have countries reacted?

Azerbaijan’s military strikes have been condemned by the US, European Union, France and Germany asking Baku to return to talks on the future of Karabakh with Armenia. Yerevan has called on members of the UN Security Council to help and Russian peacekeepers on the ground to intervene.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, on Tuesday, said Russia is in touch with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and has urged negotiations, adding that Moscow considered ensuring civilian safety the most important issue.

Meanwhile, Turkey said it supported Baku’s drive to preserve its territorial integrity.

What led to conflict?

Nagorno-Karabakh, an area controlled by Azerbaijan has a majority ethnic-Armenian population.

During the Soviet days, the was an autonomous region inside the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic.

Though the region didn’t gain much attention due to the absence of international borders, all that changed after Moscow lost control of its peripheral republics, and Nagorno-Karabakh was formally left inside Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory.

During the collapse of the USSR from 1988 to 1994, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces fought a gruelling series of battles over the region, with the Armenians taking control of swathes of land and forcing the mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azerbaijanis.

Since then, citing a 1991 referendum — boycotted by Azerbaijanis — the Karabakh-Armenians have unilaterally declared independence and maintained a de facto independent state.

For nearly three decades that situation remained stable, with the two sides locked in a stalemate that was maintained by a line of bunkers, landmines and anti-tank defences, frequently given as an example of one of the world’s few “frozen conflicts.”

However, that all changed in 2020, when Azerbaijan launched a 44-day war to regain territory, conquering hundreds of square kilometres around all sides of Nagorno-Karabakh. That left the ethnic Armenian exclave connected to Armenia proper by a single road, the Lachin Corridor — supposedly under the protection ofRussian peacekeepers as part of a Moscow-brokered ceasefire agreement.

(With inputs from agencies)

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