‘Pakistan not a mediator, just a postman, a subservient ally of America’

Puncturing the hype about Pakistan playing the role of ‘mediator’ and the impression of elevation in its standing by facilitating talks between the US and Iran to end the ongoing war in the Middle East, senior journalist and former Minister of State, Ministry of External Affairs, MJ Akbar, said on Wednesday that Pakistan is not a mediator, it is only a postman, a courier and a subservient ally of America.

Replying to a question on whether Pakistan’s reported role as a mediator between the US and Iran is a setback of any kind to India, Akbar told ANI in an interview, “I think it’s extremely important to remember that Pakistan is not a mediator. Pakistan is only a postman. Pakistan is only a courier. The real negotiation is being done between emissaries of Donald Trump and the Iranians. Everybody else is a cutout. In terms of using Pakistan, the Americans are comfortable with Pakistan because Pakistan has always been a loyal American voice...”

‘America considers Pakistan a subservient ally. We are equals of America’

Reflecting on the relations between the US and Pakistan, Akbar said, “There is no love-hate relationship when it comes to the Pentagon and the Pakistani army. The deal was signed in 1954. The deal was made three years before that, when Pakistan agreed to allow America unilateral use of Pakistan territory as a base. That base is still being used by America. So, America considers Pakistan a subservient ally. We are equals of America. That is the difference. We are a proud nation with strategic autonomy, with our own viewpoint, with our own policy. We are friends of America, but that doesn’t mean we agree with America on every issue, nor does it mean that we are stenographers who will take dictation from any superpower.”

‘Pakistan haven’t won any war, and they started every war’

On whether playing the role of mediator will elevate Pakistan’s standing, Akbar said Pakistan has always been accepted as a base for American operations. “Pakistan has its value for America, it is a formidable nuclear power. It is a power in the region. But Pakistan’s ability to win wars, its track record, is perhaps the worst in the world. They have not won any war, and they have started every war. They started a war within six weeks of becoming independent. They cannot even win a war against Afghanistan. Pakistan is the only country which has gone to war against every neighbour. It has attacked Iran also,” he said.

‘American VP needs a hotel to sleep in while negotiations are on’

Responding to a query on whether Iran will trust Pakistan, Akbar said Pakistan’s locus standi with Tehran is very, very low.

“It is really America which is pushing Pakistan and because I think the American vice president needs a hotel to sleep in somewhere while the negotiations are going on. The difference in Iran’s view of Pakistan and India can be summed up and it’s not that complicated. When India disagrees with Iran, Iran believes that India is doing so because there is a difference in perceptions or difference in policy which emerges out of India’s national interest. India naturally will keep its national interest first and the Iranians understand that just as they will keep their national interests first. But when Pakistan disagrees with them, they believe it is because the Americans have ordered them to disobey.”

“So Pakistan is not a nation which has the credibility of an independent foreign policy,” he said.

‘The days of believing that Iranians cannot deliver are over’

Assessing the war so far, Akbar said the days of believing that the Iranians cannot deliver are over.

“To understand how this war has gone on for 3 weeks you have to remember one very famous saying of Napoleon that the ratio between high morale and military prowess is 3:1. Morale is three times more valuable than military and physical prowess.”

“Once you have decided that you are not going to accept defeat, it is very hard to be defeated.”

If you look at what has been achieved from the American standpoint, number one, oil sanctions against Iran have been lifted. What was essential to American policy for years has been reversed. An Indian company has bought five 5 million tonnes of Iranian oil which was unheard of. The biggest gainer so far, Vladimir Putin, who is selling less oil for more money because the price of oil has gone up from $60-65 to $110-115 per barrel.

‘Iran hitting Dimona was turning point of this war’

The turning point of this war was the total shock which Iran achieved by hitting Dimona. Dimona is Israel’s nuclear jewel. That is where its nuclear plant is. And by destroying the security, the most secure iron dome perhaps in the world was the dome that Israel put over Dimona, much more than perhaps Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, to being able to pierce that dome by Iranian missiles sent a shock wave. It changed the nature of the war. From that moment, suddenly the American reaction and tone began to shift. The Iranians have also hit American bases over and over again.

President Trump made some unfortunate use of words when he said that bombing is fun. But now you realize that bombing is not a one-way street. Today the people of Tel Aviv, the people of Jerusalem have also for the first time begun to understand what bombing is all about.

‘Trust in America’s ability to protect allies shattered’

You have lost your allies in Europe. It’s very difficult for NATO to get back its credibility. The whole of the American security system in the Gulf is in shambles. Because trust in America’s ability to protect Saudi Arabia or UAE or Qatar which is the basis of the whole security umbrella out there that trust has been shattered. Then the credibility of American weapons; THAAD missile supposed to be by far the best. The Americans had to bring a THAAD missile from Korea because THAAD missiles were destroyed. The THAAD could not protect Dimona. Israel has launched an inquiry into this. By the way, the biggest arms purchasers of the world were the Gulf countries.

Do you think that they will continue to buy American arms? Are they going to start looking at in the next five years Chinese arms, Russian arms?

The stated objective of the war on first day one was regime change. All that you have achieved is to change Khamenei to Khamenei. There is no regime change. There’s not even regime adjustment.

It is not an individual-led system. It is a regime with some depth and it has a hierarchy.

And finally, if you wanted to start a war in order to ensure free passage through the Hormuz straits, which is now the latest item on the agenda, well, there was free passage of the Hormuz strait before the war began. In fact, it is now Iran who is putting in some terms by suggesting there should be payment and so on. Before that, there was always free passage.

‘President Trump now has begun to look for scapegoats’

It was a very serious miscalculation on all counts. But I would add and it is important to know that while America has lost face, it has not yet lost the war because America’s resources are enormous. I mean no country in the history since creation has acquired the kind of resources that America has.

I think the most significant evidence of the change is that President Trump now has begun to look for scapegoats saying that his defense or war secretary Hegseth egged him on.

President Trump walked into this war hopefully with his eyes open, but maybe with his ears closed. Maybe he was not willing to believe what many of Pentagon’s generals were also telling him that don’t take Iran lightly. The greatest miscalculation was I think by both was to underestimate Iran, underestimate Iran’s drones. Underestimate the depth of its regime.

This regime was actually tottering in the face of a popular uprising against a weak economy. The war has revived this government because it has made it, at least for the time being, synonymous with Iranian nationalism and that I think is probably a decisive factor.

‘India’s crisis management has been extremely good’

India’s crisis management has been extremely good. The worst thing that can happen in such a situation is panic. If there is panic buying, let us say of LPG or fuel, all it needs is 5% increase in demand right to create shortages.

To keep calm, the prime minister has made two very measured, very calm statements. He has also chartered out the reforms required to take India onto the next stages of complete self-sufficiency that might include storage capacities, and change of the nature of energy consumption. I think the wisdom of investing in solar panels which began 10 years ago under the prime minister is perhaps beginning to dawn on people.

I think the conversation between the government and Ali Larijani and how we managed to get our tankers through. That was a diplomatic coup. That was a security, strategic coup and that has now given confidence to the Indian energy market that our supplies will be able to come through.

When it came to the substantial challenge of the security of Iranian ships, we gave security, we gave protection.

The way we have managed this crisis, particularly by giving security to the ships, which Iran recognized, played t a very important role in Iran’s decision to allow Indian tankers to come through.

‘The possibilities of unbelievable apocalypse, catastrophe are huge’

If this de-escalation is not managed within a limited time scale, I am talking perhaps a week then this could explode into something unthinkable.

If Iranian nuclear facilities are going to be bombed, or if those bombs actually managed to hit the fusion plants leading to radioactivity, that radioactivity will not stop. Radioactivity has no boundaries and Iran will then target Israel’s Dimona,

So the possibilities of an unbelievable apocalypse, catastrophe are huge. And I think the people who started this war did not realize the implications of this because they did not understand Iran’s capacity, Iran’s will, and Iran’s ability.

Many European prime ministers are not saying what the Spanish prime minister is saying that it was an illegal war and those who start a fire cannot complain about the smoke. Many European leaders believe this to be right. They may not say so but they believe this to be right. What we will see definitely in the next decade is a complete reorientation of global dynamics, reorientation of alliances, a complete reorientation of people’s strategic and security thinking.

‘The power of balance will sustain India’

The strength of India’s foreign policy is the ability to have friendships across binaries to have friendships across nations on both sides of difficulties, both sides of conflicts. That is because we ourselves have never been aggressors.

That is the credibility of India. While the world is afflicted by theories like balance of power which is the basis of competing armaments army strength and competing arsenals. We have always believed in the power of balance and I hope that the power of balance will sustain India and Indian foreign policy through any global and international crisis.