85 seconds to midnight: How the death of New START pushed humanity to its darkest hour

The reason for the Doomsday Clock moving four seconds closer to midnight can be attributed to three things. The biggest one is the threat of nuclear war, the second is climate change, and the third is artificial intelligence. Human beings are responsible for all three of them, and that is what the movement of the Doomsday Clock is also based on - man-made disasters. On Tuesday (January 27), the hand on the clock moved a little bit closer to midnight, that it the end of the world. The approaching end of the New START treaty is one of the reasons for this. From 89 seconds, we now stand 85 seconds away from a time when Earth would no longer support life. Currently, a nuclear war is the biggest threat humans face. The world has been ravaged by wars in recent years, and if not that, there are situations that could erupt anytime.

The Russia-Ukraine war has brought the world to the brink of an all-out nuclear attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin has often warned that using nukes is not out of the picture. In 2024, he updated the country's official Nuclear Doctrine (the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence), and said, "We will consider such a possibility [nuclear use] upon receiving reliable information about the massive launch of aerospace attack vehicles and their crossing of our state border."

Also Read: Is world closer to the end? As Doomsday Clock moves nearer to midnight, a year into Trump’s term

How New START treaty expiration affects nuclear weapons and Doomsday Clock

The New START strategic arms reduction treaty expires on February 5, 2026, and is a major reason why the Doomsday Clock is moving forward. Putin has proposed that both Washington and Moscow informally observe the treaty’s terms for one year after it lapses. "Russia is prepared to continue observing the treaty's central quantitative restrictions for one more year after it expires... but only if the United States acts in a similar spirit," Putin said in late 2025, and reiterated it again in 2026. Putin has offered to stick to the 1,550 deployed warheads limit for one year, which is a signal that Russia is prepared to exceed that number immediately if the US doesn't meet his conditions. The absence of a formal, verifiable successor is the "main driver" for the Doomsday Clock moving closer to midnight.

The biggest danger identified by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is that, assuming both countries stick to the number, there is no way to inspect or verify anything. Putin’s stance is that inspections will not return until "hostile" Western policies change.