Scientists warn of heightened risk from rockets and satellite tumbling down on Earth

Debris from satellites and rocket launches is increasingly falling to the ground instead of burning up in the atmosphere. Scientists have found that the threat to humans and structures from these bodies is increasing, and it is no longer a remote risk. Scientists from the University of Wisconsin-Stout studied materials that allow reentry debris to survive with the aim of making changes that would make them safer. During spacecraft launches, nonreusable rocket boosters and other components are thrown off, and they should supposedly burn up while reentering the atmosphere. However, this is not happening in several cases. With the number of launches going up, more of this junk is being left behind, which means the chances of these pieces falling down on Earth have also become higher.

Spacecraft debris that fell on Earth

The researchers cited multiple cases when this has happened. Pieces from SpaceX Dragon's carbon fibre trunk have crashed to the ground in the past, with the entire component being larger than a 15-passenger van. One of the incidents happened during the Crew 7 mission to the International Space Station when the debris fell in North Carolina. The same thing happened with the Crew 1 mission when fragments from the trunk landed in New South Wales, Australia. The famous Axiom 3 mission also had trunk debris land in Saskatchewan, Canada. Debris from carbon fibre components that hold pressurised gases has also been recovered a few times, most recently from Australia, Argentina and Poland.

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Number of launches has increased

The question the scientists tried to answer was why they were not disintegrating. The reason comes down to the number of launches, which has increased considerably compared to 10 years ago. About 100 objects have been launched into space every year on average since the 1960s. In 2016, 200 objects were launched, and in 2025, this number stood at 4,500. Companies like SpaceX and Rocket Labs are planning to build large satellite constellations composed of hundreds of thousands to a million satellites.

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Heat-resistant material in spacecraft and satellites

This means many, many more launches, translating into more reentry events. Besides, the use of carbon fibre-reinforced plastics and new metals is not only making satellites and spacecraft lighter and stronger, but also more heat-resistant. This also means that during deorbiting, they can withstand reentry temperatures as well. But we might not see the full impact of these falls for another 10 years because decommissioned satellites do not need to be removed for 25 years.