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Indo-Pak war fears after Pahalgam terror attack - Pakistan's nuclear weapons loose talk vs India's responsible doctrine: In my native language, there is a saying: Don't give the jasmine flower to a monkey. The monkey's first instinct will be to pick it apart. It essentially means, something that has to be handled carefully should not be given to someone irresponsible. In the last few days, the rhetoric coming from Pakistan on how its nuclear weapons are not for display, hinting that they will be used against India in case of a war in response to the Pahalgam terror attack, reminded me of how important that old saying I heard a lot during childhood is.
Nuclear weapons are for deterrence
Let me take another analogy from the wildlife. Nobody, except the trained and the insane, messes with snakes. We are taught early on that snakes have poison in their fangs, so we keep a safe distance. Nuclear weapons have a purpose, and that is not for use at the first sign of war. It is the poison that makes the enemy think twice before a direct attack. In strategic terms, it is called a deterrent. But Pakistan's approach to nuclear weapons is different. It is based on hyperbole because there's no clarity on its nuclear doctrine. India, on the other hand, has been a responsible user of its nuclear weapons state staus.
Here is a comparison of India's nuclear doctrine and Pakistan's approach to nuclear weapons.
India’s nuclear doctrine
India had formulated its nuclear doctrine as early as 2003.
Its core principles are: No first Use (NFU) policy, credible minimum deterrence, and Cold Start doctrine.
No First Use (NFU) policy of India's nuclear doctrine
Simply put, it is a promise not to start a nuclear war by not being the first country to use atomic weapons.
India would only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack on its territory or armed forces.
It also pledged not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states.
However, India can use nuclear weapons in response to biological or chemical weapons attacks.
But don't take NFU for weakness.
Once India retaliates to a first strike with nuclear weapons, it would be massive. It will inflict unacceptable damage.
In other words, India's second strike capability, in the extreme level of use, could wipe out the enemy nation from the map.
India's Credible Minimum Deterrence
India's nuclear weapons programme came in spite of continuous pressure from major powers.
This led India to reach a level of sufficiency in nuclear weapons, and then stop.
Credible Minimum Deterrence means India would not go for unnecessary stockpiling of nuclear weapons, instead preferring an arsenal that's sufficient to deter adversaries.
India's Nuclear Triad, Command and Control
India's nuclear weapons are under a very clear command and control system.
It has a nuclear triad, which involves land-based missiles, aircraft, and sea-based assets.
The idea is to ensure that India retains a second-strike capability, as it is opposed to first use.
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The command and control structure is led completely by India's civilian political leadership.
On top of it is the Nuclear Command Authority. The NCA is chaired by the Indian prime minister.
The operational control of India's nuclear assets is with the Strategic Nuclear Command, set up in 2003.
Cold Start Doctrine: A key aspect of India's nuclear weapons policy
While Cold Start is not exclusively applicable to nuclear weapons, it has implications for India's nuclear policy also.
Cold start was developed after 2001, and is part of India's conventional military strategy.
It refers to rapid, limited offensives into Pakistan in response to acts by the enemy state, without going into an all-out war.
India's surgical strikes in response to Pakistan-backed terror attacks fall within this category.
The key aspects of a cold start are quick mobilisation of forces aimed at seizing territory before escalating into a nuclear war, and achieving goals before international interventions.
India's stance on global disarmament: A responsible nuclear power opposed to discrimination
In the international fora, India has made its stance clear on nuclear weapons by advocating a global, non-discriminatory and verifiable disarmament.
It stands for controlling nuclear weapons and a globally agreed moratorium on nuclear weapons tests.
This is reflected in India not joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which it finds discriminatory.
India, in summary, is a responsible nuclear power
India has used its weapons for deterrence while being committed to restraint.
The Cold Start doctrine ensures that a conventional war does not escalate into a nuclear conflict.
The case of Pakistan is totally different when it comes to nuclear doctrine.
Remember I told you about the monkey and the jasmine flower? Let me now attempt to figure out what Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is.
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is not codified
The first thing you should note is that there is no formal, single public document that codifies Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine.
The second thing you should note is that Pakistan is not committed to, in fact explicitly opposes, no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons.
This is what gives politicians the freedom to talk loose: one minister recently said Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not for decoration, but for use against India.
'Our missiles are not for decoration': Pakistan minister threatens India in video, says 130 nukes...
Whatever can be gathered about Pakistan's nuclear weapons stance is from public statements, military press releases and global think tank analyses.
Pakistan also stresses on credible minimum deterrence.
Inside India, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals: Who has more, and what would happen if New Delhi, Islamabad unleash their nukes?
Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons, such as the Nasr missile, were developed with the explicit intention to counter India's Cold Start doctrine.
First-Use Policy of Pakistan's nuclear weapons
If one goes by the public statements made by Pakistani generals, the country 'reserves the right' to use nuclear weapons in retaliation against a conventional war.
The nuclear positioning of Pakistan aims to deter India's strength in conventional warfare and its obvious military superiority.
As per claims, and reports available with international observers, Pakistan has achieved credible minimum deterrence, meaning it has enough arsenal to deter aggression.
Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) in Pakistan's nuclear weapons approach
Like India, Pakistan also has a nuclear triad involving land, air and sea.
It is reported to possess strategic, operational and tactical nuclear warheads.
Pakistan's nuclear weapons are capable of travelling beyond 3000 kilometres.
This means, at least in theory, it can strike all the way down to southern or eastern India.
When Pakistan could use nuclear weapons: Four triggers
Pakistan has refined its triggers, or nuclear thresholds, while still keeping ambiguity about when it could use atomic weapons.
The four triggers are classified as spatial threshold, military threshold, economic threshold, and political threshold.
Spatial threshold will be triggered in case of Indian military penetration into Pakistani territory, such as the Indus Valley.
Military threshold means destruction of Pakistani armed forces assets, especially its air force, or use of chemical or biological weapons in its territory.
Economic threshold could be breached if actions are taken by the enemy state to strangle the Pakistani economy, for instance, a naval blockade.
It is quite possible, theoretically, that Pakistan can interpret India's abeyance of the Indus Waters Treaty as breaching its economic threshold on the use of nuclear weapons.
The fourth trigger, the political threshold, will be the attack on Pakistan’s internal stability by the enemy state.
Pakistan's nuclear Command and Control setup
Pakistan's nuclear command and control is very similar to India's.
It is managed by a National Command Authority or NCA), chaired by the country's prime minister.
A Strategic Plans Division (SPD) oversees nuclear weapons policy, strategy, and operations.
It has been reported that lower-level military officials may have got delegated authority on use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Pakistan's strategic ambiguity on nuclear weapons can be a headache for the world
The lack of a detailed doctrine is part of Pakistan's strategic ambiguity on nuclear weapons.
This allows the leaders and the military to make statements to deter adversaries, essentially leading to nuclear sabrerattling.
They feel that this ambiguity on nuclear weapons use would deter the enemy from breaching its thresholds mentioned above.
At the same time, this strategic ambiguity is likely to be a threat to the world. Particularly given Pakistans' history of the military taking over power.
Now you know why I mentioned the monkey and the jasmine flower.