Operation Sindoor, Operation Rising Lion and Operation Midnight Hammer: Are we in the era of quickfix air wars?

At the end of 12 days of mutual aerial bombardment, Iran and Israel appear to have agreed on a ceasefire, brokered and announced by US President Donald Trump after American B2 bombers attacked suspected Iranian nuclear sites. The one-off US Operation Midnight Hammer looked very similar to Operation Sindoor, India's military action against Pakistan to avenge the Pahalgam terror attacks. India ended the operation just three days after bombings that targeted Pakistani terror infrastructure and hit near its suspected nuclear installations. Though military officials and political leadership described Operation Sindoor as ‘ongoing’, the hostilities have ended for now. The fact that what threatened to be long-drawn wars ended rather abruptly makes one wonder if we are in the era of quick-fix air wars, as opposed to long wars of attrition.

Operation Sindoor, Operation Rising Lion, Operation Midnight Hammer: Quick operations are better than wars of attrition

As long as the military objectives are achieved, quick, targeted air operations are more practical. In the era of drones, long-range missiles and artificial intelligence, such operations avoid boots on the ground. Israel is already in a war of attrition with Hamas in the Gaza strip, which started after the terror attack of 7 October 2023. The military objectives of that war - defeating Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages it had taken in 2023 - have not been achieved despite more than two years of war. This is an asymmetrical war, as Hamas continues to fight the far better-equipped Israeli Army in spite of its leadership being wiped out in Mossad-led intelligence operations both inside Gaza and abroad.

Ukraine-Russia war, US occupation of Afghanistan: Cautionary tales on how not to conduct warfare

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is an instance of how long wars of attrition are not the order of the day in the present world. Perhaps the quick operations as seen in India-Pakistan and Israel-Iran conflicts would now become a model for future wars, given the failure of long wars of attrition.
Another example of the failure of a long and costly military mission is from Afghanistan. The US invaded it with the intention of removing the Taliban regime in October 2001. But after 20 years of occupation, the US Army left Afghanistan in a messy exit as the Taliban rode back to power in August 2021, with hardly any resistance.

People are not interested in joining as foot soldiers for armies

Something that stood out in the Russia-Ukraine war is how difficult it was for both sides to recruit foot soldiers. There have been reports of draft dodging by Russians. North Korean soldiers reportedly joined Russia in fighting Ukraine. Russia reportedly recruited soldiers from jails, meaning hardened criminals were sent to the frontline. There were difficulties in recruitment for the Ukrainian Army, too. Affiliate groups, militias and mercenaries from abroad are fighting alongside the regular Ukrainian forces.

Drones and missiles: Future of warfare will have to be lean and smart

The use of drones in all these wars is a new trend that is here to stay. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles have become the face of wars in Ukraine, as well as in the Iran-Israel conflict and Operation Sindoor. Taking out enemies from the comfort of one's room or office is a much cheaper and effective method than sending the troops to the ground.

Interest is growing on non-contact warfare

The emerging new form of war consists of the following main aspects: Identify enemy targets using a combination of on-ground intelligence and satellite imagery; decide on the type of munitions and launchpads (Operation Midnight Hammer of the US, for instance, fired the torpedo missiles from submarines, while the B2 stealth bombers attacked from the air); use numerous drones and missiles to overwhelm the enemey's defence system, and exit without pilot casualties and minimum loss of hardware whenever possible. In Operation Sindoor, all Indian pilots were back home. In Iran's counterattacks, dozens of drones attempted to exhaust the Israeli air defence systems. Drones are seen as dispensable, as the cost involved in developing them would be less than the standing cost of armies.

One thing is clear: Non-contact, air-dominated warfare is going to be a more prominent aspect of combat in future than the olden days of trench warfare and face-to-face combat. Whether it is India's Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, or Israel's Operation Rising Lion against Iran, Iran's counteroffensive, or Operation Midnight Hammer, the salient features remain the same: Air war, pinpointed targets, extensive planning, and use of unmanned vehicles.