The Yemen Army on Wednesday (Apr 9)  warned Saudi Arabia not to 'get involved' in the US-led attacks on the Houthi rebels, hinting at a possible attack on its oil installations. It posted images from past strikes on Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil company by market capitalisation and production, which is within striking distance for the Houthi-led armed forces of Yemen.

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The Yemen armed forces' post on X warned: "Accelerated Saudi-American military movements are underway to launch an aggression against Yemen in service of Israel. To Saudi Arabia: do not get involved — your oil will not remain. 

"We will turn the skies over Saudi Arabia into clouds of fire for the whole world to witness." 

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But how did Saudi reach here? 

Saudi Arabia was trying to negotiate an exit from the military conflict in Yemen, after failing in its decade-long effort to contain the rise of the Iran-backed Houthis, who now control the capital Sanaa. That's when the October 7 attacks on Israel happened in 2023, followed by the Israeli invasion of Gaza. That stalled Saudi-Houthi peace talks.

The current surge in hostilities between the US-led Western forces and Houthi rebels, particularly in the Red Sea, came just years after Saudi Arabia failed in its brutal near-decade war against the rebels. 

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Currently, Riyadh's main priority is its safety, particularly of its oil facilities.

But traditional military cooperation with the US appears to have forced its hand in covertly joining American forces in the region against Houthis.

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The odd thing here is that the US strikes in Yemen are a consequence of the Houthis' recent hostilities against Israel in support of Hamas, which has been fighting against Israel in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza. So any Saudi support to the US is tantamount to supporting Israel.

Saudi-led war in Yemen: From coalition to quagmire

Saudi Arabia was the lead country in a joint intervention against Houthis that started in March 2015. Riyadh supported Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the vice-president-turned president, who had asked for international help against the Houthis.

The Saudi-led coalition included United Arab Emitrates,  Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Sudan, contributing air and ground forces. 

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Several ground operations in the war were joined by Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

Their efforts were helped by the US, UK and France through arms sales and/or technical assistance.


But the Saudi-led offensive failed, with Iran-backed Houthis emerging with the upper hand.

Why Saudi may not want to engage with Houthi army again

Geography is the burden for Saudi Arabia in this context: Yemen stretches most of its southern border, and Riyadh needs to protect itself permanently from cross-border attacks.

So far, Saudi Arabia has appeared to stay away from recent tensions that started when Houthis attacked Western and Israeli shipping interests in the Red Sea.

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But the Yemen armed forces' warning suggests that it has information of an involvement of Saudi military in the US efforts to target Yemen.

While there's no real evidence on whether Saudi Arabia and the US are joining hands again as indicated in the X post of Yemen army, Riyadh would think twice before doing anything like that.