World crosses key 1.5ºC warming mark for record number of days in 2023: Report

We are nowhere close to defeat climate change. A new report suggests that world is rather close to crossing a major warming threshold, leaving scientists concerned. In one third of 2023, the average global temperature remained at least 1.5ºC higher than pre-industrial levels, as per the report. 

Staying below that mark long-term is widely crucial to avert the dangerous effects of climate change. 2023 is already on track to be the hottest year on record, and 2024 could be even hotter.

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The report is based on BBC’s recent analysis on climate change. The latest findings come after record September temperatures and a summer of extreme weather events across much of the world. 

Where are we currently, in terms of global warming threshold?

In December 2015, world leader gathered in Paris and signed an agreement to keep the long-term rise in global temperatures this century below 2 C and to make every effort to keep it under 1.5 C. 

The agreed limits refer to the difference between global average temperatures now and what they were in the pre-industrial period, between 1850 and 1900 - before the widespread use of fossil fuels.

Breaching this Paris threshold doesn’t mean going over it for a day or a week but going beyond this across for 20 or 30 days-year average.

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This long-term average warming figure currently sits at around 1.1C to 1.2C.

But the more often 1.5C is breached for individual days, the closer the world gets to breaching this mark in the longer term.

The first time this breach happened was for a few days in December 2015. Since then the limit has been repeatedly broken, typically for short periods. 

Where are we heading now?

The recent BBC analysis shows we could breach the global long-term warming limit soon. The data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that up to October 2, around 86 days in 2023 have been over 1.5 C warmer that the pre-industrial average. This beats the 2016 record well before the end of the year.

Days when the temperature difference has exceeded 1.5C continued into September, with some more than 1.8C above the pre-industrial average.

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The month as a whole was 1.75C above the pre-industrial level, and the year to date is around 1.4C above the 1850-1900 average, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

While 2023 is "on track" to become the warmest year on record, it is not expected to breach the 1.5C warming threshold as a global average across the full 12 months.

(With inputs from agencies)

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