Will Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League find space in Tarique Rahman’s ‘new Bangladesh’ amid Jamaat’s rise?

The 13th parliamentary elections in Bangladesh has given a stunning mandate to Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Tarique Rahman, belonging to one of the most powerful political family in the country, who returned to the country after 17 years in exile, is set to become the prime minister. This was the first elections in the country in the absence of ‘Two Begums.’ Khaleda Zia is no more and Sheikh Hasina is in India after she was ousted from power in 2024 uprising. Ahead of the polls, Tarique Rahman had pitched for a “new Bangladesh" and it is quite evident that the voters trusted him. However, will he make space for Awami League (AL) and Sheikh Hasina in his new Bangladesh? This is a question that analysts say would define the politics of Bangladesh in coming days. Going by the pattern, vendetta has been a large part of the country's mainstream politics. Whether Tarique Rahman also follows the old patterns or proves himself to be different, only time can tell. For now, Rahman has said that Hasina's extradition from India would depend on the legal process. Senior leader from his party Salahuddin Ahmed, however, confirmed that the party will formally urge India to hand over Hasina to stand trial.

The Rise of Jamaat

Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) has won 68 seats and secured approximately 31.76 per cent votes. Its total seat count along with allies is 11. Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman called this performance a foundation and not a setback even as the party fell short of forming the next Bangladeshi government. But why does Shafiqur Rahman sees this performance by Jamaat as a foundation? It is because electorally this is indeed Jamaat's best performance ever. The party did not contest polls in between 2014 to 2018. In 2008, it secured only 4.7 per cent votes and two seats. It's previous best performance was in 1991 when the party won 18 seats and got a vote share of approximately 12 per cent.

Jamaat actively supported the student uprising against Hasina in 2024. Jamaat-backed student organisations popularised the party's idealogy among GenZs. Its pre-poll alliance with The National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by prominent student leaders like Nahid Islam and Hasnat Abdullah, who played a key role in 2024 student uprising, helped the party to build its own grassroots base. Its popularity rose with the support of several Islamist groups that came to forefront after Hasina's exit. The public anger against India in post-Hasina Bangladesh also helped Jamaat even as the party adopted a more inclusive image and went on to field a Hindu candidate. With public sentiments largely in its favour, the growth story of Jamaat continues even after the poll loss.

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Tarique Rahman may well be aware of Jamaat's growth story. Even before his swearing-in, he met Jamaat's chief Shafiqur Rahman to cajole his support. Though Shafiqur Rahman has extended his party's support for now, it has added a rider, saying it would speak in matters where accountability is required. Ideologically, Jamaat is opposite to both AL and BNP as it has historically not supported the existence of a secular Bangladesh. With the rise of Islamists in the country rife with multiple incidents of attacks on minorities, it is important for Tarique Rahman to keep the rise of Jamaat in check. The absence of Hasina's AL from the political scenario only gives Jamaat a vacant space to fill, Rahman should know.

AL voters who have trusted BNP

In the recently concluded elections, BNP has successfully filled the vacuum created due to the absence of AL. Several analysts pointed out that a significant segment of the AL voter base shifted their support to the BNP. As per a pre-poll analysis, approximately 48.2 per cent of former AL voters indicated support for the BNP. For AL voters, BNP was a natural choice as both BNP and AL are based on the secular and nationalist foundations of the 1971 Liberation War. Tarique Rahman’s pitch for a "equal Bangladesh" with place for all proved to be a safe option than staunch Islamist conservatism of Jamaat. With the AL gone, the BNP remained the only centrist party with the organisational capacity to form a stable government, attracting voters who prioritised governance over ideology. Now, these voters wants Tarique Rahman to avoid past vendetta and give them a chance in the new Bangladesh that he is building.

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Khaleda vs Hasina

Analysts point out that Tarique Rahman has witnessed the injustice done to his family by Hasina and he might not be open to provide her concessions yet. As Hasina consolidated her power after 2008 elections, barrage of cases against Khaleda Zia followed. In 2011, the neutral caretaker government system, that oversaw elections, was abolished. The BNP cried foul and boycotted the 2014 and 2024 general elections. Reports of ballot stuffing occurring the night before official voting surfaced after 2018 election. In the same year, Zia was sentenced to 17 years in prison in the Zia Orphanage Trust and Zia Charitable Trust cases.

The three-time PM was sent to an abandoned Old Dhaka Central Jail where she served as the only inmate for over two years. Despite her rank as a former PM and senior citizen, the BNP alleged she was initially denied "division" status. In March 2020, her sentence was suspended due to ill health, but she was moved to house arrest with strict conditions, including a ban on political activity. Moreover, Hasina rejected at least 18 requests from Zia’s family to allow her to travel abroad for treatment. Tarique Rahman was also sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for his alleged role in the 2004 grenade attack in a Awami League rally. Some reports also state that an estimated half of the BNP's 5 million members faced some form of politically motivated prosecution during this period.

Is Tarique Rahman ready to forget the vendetta unleashed upon his family and his party during Hasina's tenure? Is he ready to give Awami League and Sheikh Hasina a chance in the new Bangladesh? Will he calculate the risks of letting Jamaat flourish in Bangladesh, despite knowing the public anger against India and Jamaat's historical closeness to Pakistan? Can UK-return Tarique Rahman be the statesman who values “rule of law” more than anything else? As of now, we can only wait and watch.