US media suggests Trump’s lead in betting markets could be ‘manufactured’
Donald Trump shaking a leg at an election rally
Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is leading big time in some betting markets. Now, the Wall Street Journal has suggested that the lead could very well be ‘manufactured’ to fuel social-media buzz in Trump’s favour.
‘$30 million bet’
Despite some polls showing a neck-to-neck fight between Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket shows Trump in the lead with a 60 per cent winning chance.
The trend has pumped excitement among Trump’s supporters, with billionaire Elon Musk writing on X, “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
However, the WSJ quoted Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm, as saying that a group of four bettors have pumped $30mn betting in Trump’s favour and “there’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.
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Arkham reported that the four Polymarket accounts were identified as –redi9999 , Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie— and all were funded by deposits from Kraken, a crypto exchange.
WSJ quoted Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor, as alleging that $30mn amount was enough to swing the odds in betting markets and a deep-pocketed individual might be seeking to influence the elections.
“It is by far the most efficient political advertising one can buy,” Cochran said, implying the $30mn betting may be a part of political campaign.
‘Not necessarily nefarious’
Notably, neither WSJ nor the experts quoted by it provided evidence that the four bettors were linked to Trump campaign.
In fact, some observers added that these bets may have been placed by a large bettor who is just convinced that Trump will win and there might not be a ‘nefarious activity.’
It’s not just Polymarket, but Trump has also gained lead on the UK’s Betfair.
WSJ quoted Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University, as saying, “Purchasing a large number of shares on one outcome does not require any ulterior motive or effort to manipulate the market.”
(With inputs from agencies)