Will Trump budge on the tariffs? According to betting app Poly Market, the chances are pretty bleak unless it's Israel. The platform also sees a 65% chance of a US recession in 2025. And this marks a sharp increase from just 38% last week. In fact, this shift follows President Trump's announcement of new trade tariffs on major global economies, which has led to heightened concerns about the US economy.

Polymarket shows growing pessimism on quick tariff reversal

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Pseudonymous French trader wins $48 million on Trump bet

US media suggests Trump’s lead in betting markets could be ‘manufactured’

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