Iran-Israel conflict: Suspicions that insider used classified information for Polymarket bets
Polymarket account bets on Iran-Israel War: The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) suspect that someone with insider information made bets on Polymarket.
Polymarket bets on Iran-Israel tensions
The Middle East is on edge as tensions between Iran and Israel are at an all-time high. Amid this, wagers are being made on the betting website Polymarket about Israel striking Iran. There are currently a few of them, with one predicting that Israel will strike Iran by January 31, 2026. Another is for an attack by June 30, 2026. There was one last year about whether it could happen before the end of 2025.
Confidential information used for Israel-Iran bets on Polymarket?
There are now claims that an Israeli insider used classified information to bet $128,700 on Iran strike on Polymarket. This person probably has access to confidential information, Israel’s public broadcaster Israel.com reported on Thursday. Israel’s public broadcaster Israel.com, reported on Thursday.
Polymarket account made money on Twelve-Day War, Operation Rising Lion
This account originally opened on June 13, 2025, and made big bucks soon after, earning more than $128,700 by betting that Israel would take military action against Iran. At the time, there was only a 14 per cent chance of this happening. But then, the "Twelve-Day War" began between the two countries on June 13, 2025, as Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran, and killed prominent military leaders, nuclear scientists and politicians.
Insider information used for Polymarket bets on Iran?
The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) are investigating the matter and whether it was someone who knew about it beforehand who used the information to place the bet. However, a formal probe has not been launched for now. The account was initially named “RicoSauve666,” but it recently switched to "Rundeep".
Polymarket account has bet on Israel attacking Iran before January 31
This was apparently done after suspicions arose about the "shockingly consistent outcomes," the New York Post reported. The same account has also bet $15,517.18 that Israel will attack Iran before January 31. The odds were low as 16 per cent on Polymarket at the start, but now that social media is pointing out the accuracy of the prediction, the probability has seen a hike.
Polymarket account had bet on Operation Rising Lion
According to The Post, the account successfully bet on four results linked to Israel’s "Operation Rising Lion", or the "Twelve-Day War". The account even got the exact dates of the operation right. It has made more than $154,219 from bets on Israeli and US military activities.
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