&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Polymarket bets $4.8M on 2026 West Bengal elections, projects BJP as favourite after phase 2")
US-based Polymarket have seen a massive amount of bets placed on the 2026 West Bengal Assembly Election. As of April 29, 2026, approximately $4.8 million has been bet on the online prediction market on the outcome of the West Bengal election. The markets are favouring the BJP at 56 per cent and the AITC at 43 per cent, while the CPI, CPI(M), INC and the BGMP are being traded at less than 1 per cent.
Breakdown of the Poly Market trend
A quick breakdown of the projected trend at the Polymarket shows that AITC has a higher trade volume than the BJP. It has roughly at $1.1 million trade, and AITC has roughly $1.8 million. The BJP is trading at 57.2 cents each bet to win, compared to AITC trading at 44.1 cents.
The market trend suggests early April AITC was favoured at 75-80 per cent, to BJP at 20-25 per cent. However, following the first phase of voting, it shifted to the BJP at 54 per cent, showing low numbers at first, then a quick acceleration. Then April 26-27 saw massive money fled to AITC with $600,000+ in one day, implying some traders thought BJP was overpriced after phase 1. After the phase 2 violent reversal is being seen ,the BJP back to favourites at 56 per cent.
However, throughout the whole period, trade volume with AITC remained higher. The sheer discrepancy in the market projection of BJP winning and AITC losing despite the high trade volume for AITC could be explained through two reasons: either there was more trading for AITC to lose, or there were some whale traders who put a large spread on BJP winning. One interesting profile sits out, KairosHunter, who is the largest “Yes” holder for BJP at 105,417 shares, which means the trader has invested approximately $44-$60k.
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What do the numbers suggest?
The numbers indicate a close finish, with market sentiment putting the BJP as the favourite. However, Polymarket face a complex legal environment in India, and a good share of the investors originate from the US and Europe, while some are likely using VPN or crypto stablecoin to bypass restrictions. Phases 1 and 2 of the West Bengal election have reported 93.19 per cent and 91.41 per cent polling, respectively. The Delhi Satta Bazaar is predicting a win for AITC with 146-149, while BJP is 140-143. The high volume in Polymarket trade for a state assembly election reflects intense national and international interest in whether Mamata Banerjee’s TMC can withstand a strong challenge from the BJP.
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