Russia-Ukraine war enters third year as Putin defies West’s support for Zelensky

Russia Ukraine War News:Two years ago, on Feb 24, 2022,Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine citing "expansion of NATO to the east" as an existential threat to Russia and a violation of post-Cold War understanding between the then-leaders in Moscow and the Western capitals.

Since then, one more country— Finland— has become part of the US-led military alliance while another Russian neighbour,Sweden, is on course to enter NATO. But on the battlefield,two years ofRussian advances, and Ukrainian counteroffensives have created a state of stalemate.

Russia controls just 18 per cent of Ukraine's internationally recognised territory. This is made up of 94 per cent of Luhansk Oblast, 73 per cent of Kherson Oblast, 72 per cent of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and 54 per cent of Donetsk Oblast and Crimea. Notably, some of these territorial gains were made beforeFebruary 24, 2022.

Add WION as a Preferred Source

Since Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, Russian forces have slowly inched forward, capturing the town of Avdiivka earlier this month after amonths-long battle..

Two years into its full-scale offensive, Russia has captured a little less than a fifth of Ukraine's internationally-recognised territories | AFP

In the weeks after February 24, 2022, the economic picture for Moscow looked challenging for Russia as the Rouble crashed and foreign investors fled. But the war-related demand-supply chain fuelled and fulfilled by the military-industry complex came in handy. Add oil exports to the mix, and the Russian economy continued to withstand hundreds of Western sanctions as war raged on in Ukraine that gave Moscow control of Ukraine's all Black Sea ports except the port of Odesa.

In the second half of this two-year war period so far, an insurrection by the Wagner mercenary group in June 2023 led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, stunned the corridors of power in Moscow.

The Wagner mercenaries, while following Prigozhin's orders, were halted just a few hours short of Moscow after a Belarus-brokered deal. The insurrection died as dramatically as it began, and so did Prigozhin — two months later, in a mysterious plane crash.

File photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin with Yevgeny Prigozhin | Reuters

But Putin's hold on power continues to be stable. The Russian president is poised to win a fifth six-yearpresidential term in the upcoming March election.

The war, however, has displaced millions of Ukrainian nationals and has changed the geopolitical landscape of Eurocentric politics. The economies have been hit due to disrupted supply chains, triggering global economic uncertainty.

Russia-Ukraine war: Peace efforts continued as war raged

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of signing a peace treaty with Russia to end thewar and throwing it into the 'garbage of history' in the spring of 2022. Putin's comments came during a meeting with the leaders of the African Union spearheaded by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in St. Petersberg on June 17, 2023.

Turkey hosted a series of negotiations starting in the spring of 2022 to help develop "trust" between the two warring sides.

Ahead of the second anniversary of the war,Switzerland told the United Nations on Friday (Feb 23) that it intends to organise a high-level Ukrainepeace conference"by the summer". Similarly, a Ukrainian official visiting India this week confirmed to WION that one such peaceconference will be organised by Switzerlandlater this year.

India, too, has saidthat New Delhi is publicly committed to bringing the conflict to an end.

"Wherever we can help, we are happy to do so. We are open when we are approached. However, we do not believe that we should initiate anything in this direction on our own," India's External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar told a German newspaper on Feb 20, 2024.

What is the current state of war?

The present-day momentum in the war rests with Russia due to control of Ukrainian ports as well as psychological blow to Ukraine's wartime morale due to the fall of the most aggressively defended Ukrainian town of Avdiivka earlier this month.

The Ukrainian forces are also reportedly sensing an acute shortage of equipment and manpower amid dwindling support from Washington.

Russia, on the other hand, has been able to successfully re-adapt its wartime tacticswith increased military conscription and support from its indigenous military-industry complex for the production of military equipment.

But nearly 45,000 Russians have been killed in action since February 2022, the independent outlet MediaZona has reported. To put this in context, thisis three times the Red Army’s losses during its decade-long invasion of Afghanistan.

Also watch |Russia-Ukraine war: Two years of Russia-Ukraine war, what is next?

On the front lines in Ukraine, nearly 45,000 Russians have been killed in action since February 2022, the independent outlet MediaZona has reported. That is three times the Soviet Army’s losses during its decade-long military operations inAfghanistan.

But with itsgreater resources in terms of human power, the tactical gains and strategic advantagescontinue to stay tilted on the Russian side as the war enters its third year.