New EIA report warns Strait of Hormuz disruptions could keep pressure on global oil markets

A new U.S. government energy report is putting renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping through one of the world’s most important energy corridors remains constrained and uncertainty continues over how quickly oil flows will return to normal.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that it expects severe constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to persist through August, before traffic gradually increases beginning in September. The agency said reduced shipments through the waterway are expected to further draw down global oil inventories in the coming months.

The EIA report, however, focuses primarily on the economic consequences of the disruption and the expected pace of recovery rather than the question of who controls the waterway.

The agency now forecasts Brent crude oil to average around $85 per barrel during the third quarter of 2026, $11 per barrel higher than it projected just one month ago. The EIA expects prices to ease to around $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter as shipping increases and more oil production comes back online.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, providing a crucial export route for major Middle Eastern energy producers. Disruptions there can therefore have consequences well beyond the region, affecting global oil supplies, shipping costs, and ultimately prices paid by consumers.

The latest EIA outlook also suggests that some effects of the conflict could persist even after shipping conditions improve.

Around 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern oil production was offline in July, equivalent to more than 5% of global oil consumption. Although much of that production is expected to return, the EIA forecasts that approximately 600,000 barrels per day could remain offline through the end of 2027 as some producers face difficulties restoring output to pre-conflict levels.

The outlook represents another shift in expectations for an oil market that has changed rapidly as conditions around Hormuz have evolved. In July, the EIA had expected Brent to average about $74 per barrel during the third quarter. Its new forecast of roughly $85 illustrates how continued restrictions through the Strait have altered the supply picture.

The central question now is how quickly normal commercial traffic can resume. The EIA expects conditions to begin improving in September, but its latest forecast makes clear that the economic consequences of the disruption could continue long after more ships begin moving through the Strait.