India set to be world's most populous country, surpassing China. What does it mean?

China's 1980-enacted one-child policy formally ended in 2016. However, that is unlikely to stop the population reduction in the nation. UN projects China's population would reach 1.31 billion in 2050, a decrease of about 100 million from the 2021 peak. China's working population is also declining. China’s working-age population is projected to fall below 50% by 2045. With this, many are debating where India stands and the effects that the country's expanding population will have in light of China's dropping population rate.

India set to become the world's most populous country

China's population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years which has increased the chance that India is all set to become the world's most populous nation in the coming months. What are the possible implications?Fertility rates in India, notably in rural regions, have just recently started to decline below replacement levels. The expansion of education, as well as, farm mechanisation and landholding fragmentation also had implications on India's population. The need for big families to farm the land has decreased due to smaller holdings and the need for less labour in agricultural operations. However, even with declining birth rates, it is predicted that India's population would only start to drop after reaching 1.7 billion in around 40 years.

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The working-age population is more significant; its proportion of the total population barely exceeded 50% in 2007 and will peak at 57% by the middle of the 2030s. Overall, India has a window of opportunity to enjoy its "demographic dividend" long into the 2040s, much like China did from the late 1980s to up until 2015. The provision of meaningful work possibilities for a youthful population is absolutely necessary for this to happen; otherwise, the demographic dividend might easily turn into a demographic nightmare.

As per the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population dropped to 1,411.8 million in 2022. The previous year, China's population was 1,412.6 million. It is an important development as reportedly India will now be home to the largest population in the world. Though India has not conducted a census since 2011, however, UN projections show that India's population is at 1,417.2 million in 2022 and is expected to reach 1,428.6 million in 2023.

What's causing population change?

Mortality rate, fertility rate and life expectancy at birth

There are factors playing behind the change in population. Mortality or the relative number of deaths and fertility rates. In 1950, the crude death rate (CDR), or the number of deaths per 1,000 people annually, was 23.2 for China and 22.2 for India. China initially reached single digits in 1974 at 9.5, followed by India in 1994 to 9.8, and both countries in 2020 to 7.3–7.4. Moreover, life expectancy at birth went up from 43.7 to 78.1 years for China and from 41.7 to 70.1 years for India between 1950 and 2020. Throughout 1950, China and India had total fertility rates (TFR) of 5.8 and 5.7, respectively, which refers to the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. In the past thirty years, India's TFR has decreased significantly. It decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992–1993 and 2019–21; the decline was particularly notable in rural regions.

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