How Russia-Ukraine war is reshaping energy flows, food prices, defence spending and India’s strategy | WION Decodes

The Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022 and has been going on ever since for over four years now. Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, triggering the deadliest war in Europe since World War II. The conflict has not just increased tensions in the region, but also affected supply chains across the world. With no sign of a resolution of the conflict in the near future, the world has been forced to adapt to the shifts it brought to global energy markets, food security, and defence spending.

Energy markets on edge

The war has pushed the energy markets to the edge given Russia’s dominance over global crude oil exports. The sanctions and repeated strikes on its refineries have significantly changed the flow of supply in ways that are still playing out.

Through 2025 and 2026, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have intensified, at times cutting refinery output and tightening fuel availability inside Russia itself. In an unusual event, Russia even had to import refined fuels, including shipments from India.

At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have kept traders on alert over potential disruptions to one of the world’s most critical supply regions. Even without full-scale escalation, periodic flare-ups in the region have been enough to push prices higher, tighten insurance costs, and amplify risk premiums across global crude benchmarks.

The result is a market that is not short of oil, but short of certainty. Diesel remains the tightest segment, particularly in Europe, where inventories are thin, and price swings remain sharp whenever supply fears emerge.

Food markets under persistent pressure

While there were initial fears of food shortages, the concerns have faded. However, the markets have not returned to normal. Both Russia and Ukraine hold a significant share in global wheat and sunflower oil exports. Moscow is also a key player in fertiliser supply.

However, since the Black Sea trade route was disrupted in 2022, exports have been rerouted through longer and more expensive channels. While the war has not resulted in a shortage of food supplies, it has pushed prices way up due to longer shipping time, higher insurance costs, and thin margins across the board. In India, the rising cost of fertilisers has affected the agriculture industry.

Defence spending

Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, military budgets have not just increased – they have undergone a major shift. NATO countries have expanded their spending and rebuilt ammunition stocks. They have also accelerated procurement of drones, missile systems and air defence networks.

What is different this time is persistence. Defence spending is no longer reacting to a single war. It is responding to the expectation that instability is now a feature of the system, not an interruption.

The Iran war further reinforced this trend beyond Europe, pushing regional governments to increase readiness and procurement cycles.

India: Balancing energy gains and risks

India has benefited from discounted Russian crude, with imports from Russia rising sharply since 2022 and helping to stabilise fuel prices. But that advantage sits alongside exposure to sanctions risk and supply chain uncertainty.

The Middle East adds another dimension, given India’s heavy reliance on the region for energy imports and shipping routes. Any escalation there directly affects freight costs, insurance premiums and supply security.

On defence, dependence on Russian-origin systems continues even as India pushes diversification and domestic production. Spare parts and long-term maintenance remain key pressure points. India’s challenge is no longer just balancing partners. It is managing exposure across multiple conflict zones at once, in a global system where instability has become overlapping rather than isolated.

Watch | Russia-Ukraine War: Zelensky, Putin Hold Separate Calls With Trump on Ukraine War