With the fall of the Assad regime, Syria’s new government now controls almost the entire country, except for the northeast, where the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), once a key partner of the US in the fight against ISIS, continues to hold power. Although the region is often referred to as Kurdish-controlled, it is primarily home to an Arab tribal population. Understanding the region’s demographics is critical to preventing policy that could destabilize the region and lead to unforeseen geopolitical consequences.
The Demographics of Northeast Syria
The M4 highway, which runs parallel to the Turkish border and extends toward Iraq, is one of Syria’s two major economic routes and divides northeast Syria into two regions. Except for a few Assyrian villages, the area south of the M4 predominantly houses Arab tribes. The population is more ethnically diverse north of the M4, including Arabs, Kurds, Assyrian Christians, Turkmen, and Circassians. For example, Qamishli, a major city in the region, consists of eight predominantly Kurdish neighbourhoods, six Arab neighbourhoods, two primarily Christian neighbourhoods, and seven mixed neighbourhoods.
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Apart from Qamishli, the historically Kurdish town of Ayn al-Arab (Kobane) is also home to a mix of Arab tribes and Turkmen clans. The 2004 Syrian census data shows that the region had 2.4 million people, of which around 19 per cent were Kurdish. This suggests that Kurds represent a minority, with Arabs making up a significant portion of the population in areas controlled by the SDF.
The Syrian Kurdish Political Landscape
The Syrian Kurdish population is divided among various political factions, most notably the Syrian Kurdish National Council (KNC) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD). The KNC has ties to the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iraq, and its military wing, the Rojava Peshmerga, has received training from the United States. In contrast, the PYD, which is linked to the PKK, leads the SDF; a group considered a terrorist organisation by the US, NATO, and Turkey. Many Kurds view the PYD and its armed wing, the YPG, as extensions of the PKK, with significant decision-making power based in the Qandil Mountains of Iraq.
Who are the Kurds, and why is Turkey targeting them?
The Kurds have a long history, with distinct cultural and ethnic identities, but they have never had an independent nation. In the aftermath of World War I, the Kurdish diplomat Mehmet Sherif Pasha proposed the creation of a Kurdistan that spanned parts of modern Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. However, the Treaty of Sèvres in 1920 proposed a much smaller Kurdistan, all within modern Turkey. The Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 replaced it and effectively ended the idea of an independent Kurdish state.
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After Syria’s civil war broke out in 2011, Kurdish forces declared autonomy over parts of northeastern Syria in November 2013, where they are in majority. An estimated 30 million Kurds live across northern Iraq, western Iran, and northern Syria, and make up about 18% of Turkey’s population. The Kurds have long faced persecution in Syria and other regions as the largest ethnic group without a homeland. Despite their cultural and diasporic significance, Kurds have faced decades of repression. They have repeatedly tried to establish a self-governing Kurdistan but have been met with harsh crackdowns, resulting in bans on Kurdish language and cultural practices. For instance, in Iraq, Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against them, and in Iran, their uprisings in the 1980s and 1990s were violently suppressed.
In 1978, Abdullah Öcalan founded the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to pursue an independent Kurdish state, leading to decades of armed conflict with Turkey. The PKK’s insurgency lasted from 1984 until Öcalan’s capture in 1999. This resulted in the deaths of approximately 40,000 Kurdish civilians. A ceasefire declared in 2013 collapsed when Turkey began targeting PKK positions in 2015 during the war against the Islamic State.
Kurds and the Islamic State
As the Islamic State advanced through Syria and Iraq, the Kurdish militias, particularly the People’s Protection Units (YPG), were among the few forces able to resist them. The Kurds, primarily located along Syria’s border with Turkey, began defending their territories as the Syrian civil war escalated in 2011-12. In 2014, when the US joined the fight against ISIS, it found a valuable ally in the YPG. Experts opine that the Kurds also served as a counterbalance to Iranian and Russian influence in the region, offering leverage in a potential post-war settlement.
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Once the Kurds expelled ISIS from northern Syria, they took control of areas along the Syria-Turkey border which is home to Kurds, Arabs, and other ethnic groups. The YPG’s ties to the PKK, however, made it a target for Erdogan’s regime, which views it as a significant security threat. The US faced the challenge of balancing its alliances with Turkey, a NATO member, and the Kurds, who had lost over an estimated 10,000 fighters in the battle against ISIS.
Historically, under the Obama administration, the Syrian Kurdish militia sought to downplay its connection to the PKK, rebranding itself as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and recruiting more non-Kurdish fighters. By 2016, it was estimated that around 40% of SDF fighters were from non-Kurdish backgrounds. The US worked to maintain peace along the Turkish border, conducting joint patrols with the Turkish army.
The Way Forward
Analysts suggest that Turkey stands as one of the key beneficiaries of the collapse of the Assad regime, while the Kurds are poised to suffer the most, particularly in terms of their autonomy and the safety of their communities. Analysts have also warned that the Kurds are in a precarious position following this shift.
Turkey, which shares a nearly 900-kilometre border with Syria, has historically opposed the Assad regime and supported various armed factions in Syria, including Sunni jihadist groups. Additionally, Turkey has taken in around 3.6 million Syrian refugees, which has resulted in domestic unrest back home.
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Since 2016, Turkey has carried out several military operations in Syria, aimed at preventing the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region along its border. In 2019, Turkey attempted to establish a 30-kilometre buffer zone but failed. Despite this setback, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pushed for the creation of this defensive area. After the fall of Assad, Turkish-backed fighters quickly moved in to seize the territory previously controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), furthering Turkey’s long-standing objectives.