Explained | Why deadly heatwaves across Europe, US ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change

As soaring temperatures continue to bake swathes of North America and Europe this month, researchers, on Tuesday (July 25) confirm what many speculated, that this weather phenomenon would be “virtually impossible” without human-induced climate change.

From record-breaking temperatures in the United States to life-threatening wildfires burning parts of Europe, we only have ourselves (and our greenhouse gas emissions) to blame as July 2023 may be the hottest month for the planet.

Record-breaking temperatures ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change

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A new rapid analysis of the scorching temperatures was published by an international team of scientists at the World Weather Attribution which found that the heatwaves in parts of Europe and North America would have been impossible if it was not for human-induced climate change.

“European and North American temperatures would have been virtually impossible without the effects of climate change,” Izidine Pinto of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, one of the authors, told journalists, on Tuesday.

The research also noted that climate change has also caused recent record-setting heatwaves in China, which are to become 50 times “more likely,” when compared to previous years. This comes as the country witnessed its record-setting temperature of 52.2 degrees Celsius in Sanbao township in Xinjiang’s Turpan Depression.

Scientists also noted how the extreme weather events witnessed in July across the world would have been “extremely rare” if it was not for climate change.

The rise in greenhouse gas concentrations made the European heatwave 2.5 degrees Celsius hotter than it would have been. They also helped worsen North American heatwaves by two degrees Celsius and also in China by one degree Celsius.

This comes nearly a week after NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt told reporters how July 2023 is not only on track to become the hottest month since records began but also the hottest in “hundreds, if not thousands, of years.”

Situation to worsen

“The role of climate change is absolutely overwhelming,” said climate scientist Friederike Otto, of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London.

The weather data collected was used to run through computer model simulations to compare today’s climate with that of the past years. Otto and her colleagues at the WWA said they focused on periods when “the heat was most dangerous in each region.”

According to Otto, in the past, it would have been “basically impossible” to witness these record-breaking temperatures and heatwaves happening around the same time. But at the same time, “It’s not surprising from a climatological point of view, that these events are happening at the same time,” said the researcher.

The findings were published using peer-reviewed methods but the study has yet to undergo the formal academic review process.

Researchers from Imperial College London, the Dutch National Weather Service and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, estimated that these severe heatwaves can now be expected once every 15 years in North America, every decade in southern Europe and every five years in China.

Scientists also expect these prolonged periods of extreme heat would be as frequent as every two to five years if the global temperatures rise over two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

This is expected to happen around 30 years from now unless countries fulfil their Paris Agreement and cut down emissions. Currently, the average temperatures are estimated to have risen by over 1.1 degrees Celsius.

About the cause

These effects have largely been attributed to the generation of greenhouse gases by burning fossil fuels. “As long as we keep burning fossil fuels we will see more and more of these extremes,” Otto. She added, “I don’t think there’s any stronger evidence that any science has ever presented for a scientific question.”

Scientists also noted that while the El Nino weather pattern may have contributed to the additional heat in some regions, these extreme events cannot solely be attributed to the phenomenon, as the weather pattern is not expected to strengthen until later on in the year.

They added that these heatwaves will become increasingly likely if measures to slash emissions are not taken.

Impact and calls for urgent measures

Recent record-breaking temperatures have also directly impacted human health, caused large-scale crop damage and livestock losses, said the scientists. These adverse effects of heatwaves seen in North America, southern Europe and China have accelerated the need for heat preparedness, they added.

A study published, earlier this month, in the journal Nature Medicine found that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain saw the highest number of deaths, according to population size, when Europe was hit by the sweltering heatwaves last summer.

It also estimated that more than 61,600 people may have died from heat-related causes across 35 European countries between late May to early September 2022, suggesting that the countries’ heat preparedness efforts fell fatally short.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said they are particularly concerned about people with cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and asthma during the heatwaves in Europe and the US.

Last week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning about a high risk of deaths due to the extreme weather and said such events will only intensify and the world needs to be better prepared for them.

While we are focusing on the maximum day temperatures, it is the high overnight minimum temperatures that we should be worried about as they have the “biggest health risks”, particularly for vulnerable populations, said WMO senior extreme heat advisor, John Nairn, on July 18.

(With inputs from agencies)

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