Did Trump also hit China via Iran strikes? Cheap oil sources choked for the second time after Venezuela

A ‘cause and effect’ analysis has suggested that President Donald Trump may have indirectly hit China through the US joint military operations with Israel targeting Iran, as the Asian giant now stands to lose another source of cheap oil. This is the second such blow for China, as Trump has also removed the leader of another source of fuel for China, namely Venezuela. The analysis, published in Newsweek, argued that the Iran strike is part of a broader geopolitical strategy aimed not just at the Middle East, but at pressuring China, the main global adversary of the US. Both Iran and Venezuela were close friends and strategic allies of China, having supplied it with oil on favourable terms.

Madi Kapparov, head of research at the London-based Centre for Information Defence and Strategies, told the website that the US objective was to “choke out the primary source of cheap oil to China”.

How the US may have targeted China’s energy lifeline

China’s energy security is central to its rivalry with the US, having bought more than 80 per cent of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025, according to analytics firm Kpler. Kapparov noted that estimates of China’s Iranian oil imports range “from 0 to 18 per cent” of its total imports, since Beijing stopped reporting Iran deliveries since 2022. Reuters news agency estimated that about 13 per cent of China’s seaborne crude came from Iran, often through covert ship-to-ship transfers, including off Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Venezuela supplied about 4 per cent of China’s oil needs until January, when the US removed its leader, Nicolas Maduro. China may have expected that Iranian imports would offset Venezuelan losses, a hope which now appears dashed.

Even though China has invested heavily in coal and renewables, a military cannot run on coal or renewables, Kapparov noted. Disrupting Iranian oil supplies for China could therefore directly affect Beijing’s defence readiness.

A broader ‘authoritarians’ domino effect' theory

Speaking to Newsweek, Ross Babbage, CEO of Strategic Forum, suggested that the Iran strike fits into a wider strategic pattern, implying that another authoritarian leader had fallen.

“The countries that have been authoritarian strongholds…are falling over. The partners that Beijing and Moscow have are reducing in number and in strategic weight,” Babbage was quoted as saying.

Is China a reliable partner?

Assessing the relatively slow and tepid reaction of China to US interventions in Venezuela and Iran, Babbage argued that these events raise doubts about the reliability of China as a partner. Despite grandiose rhetoric about allied regimes, he said, “when push comes to shove, what have they done to support Venezuela against the United States? The answer is they really couldn’t do anything. And I think it’s the same…with Iran.”

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