ugc_banner

Climate change may lead to global tension, says US intelligence report

WION Web Team
New DelhiUpdated: Oct 22, 2021, 11:32 PM IST
main img
Climate change unleashes nature's fury on the world Photograph:(AFP)

Story highlights

The assessment comes as a collective view of all 18 US intelligence agencies

The US intelligence community has warned that climate change will lead to growing international tensions. The first-ever National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change highlights the impact of climate on national security through to 2040. It warns of the risks if futuristic geo engineering technologies are deployed by some countries acting alone.

The assessment comes as a collective view of all 18 US intelligence agencies. 

It talks about how the world is failing to co-operate and moving towards dangerous competition and instability. "A decline in fossil fuel revenue would further strain Middle Eastern countries that are projected to face more intense climate effects," says the report.

The report identifies 11 countries and two regions where energy, food, water and health security are at risk. This is because they tend to be poorer and less able to adapt. Five of the 11 countries are in South and East Asia, including Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan and North Korea. Four countries are in Central America and the Caribbean, including Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua. Colombia and Iraq are the others. Central Africa and small states in the Pacific are also at risk.

The Arctic is likely to be a major concern as it becomes more accessible because of reducing ice. 

This may open new shipping routes and access to fish stocks but also create risks of miscalculation as militaries move in.

Access to water will also become a source of problems. In the Middle East and North Africa, about 60 per cent of surface water resources cross boundaries. Meanwhile, the Mekong River basin could cause problems between China and Cambodia and Vietnam, the report warns.

Another source of risk is that a country might decide to use geo engineering. This involves using futuristic technology. 

However, if one country acts alone it could simply shift the problem to another region and create anger from other nations which have been impacted in a negative way.

Researchers in countries like, Australia, China, India, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as several EU members, are looking at these techniques. However, there are few rules or regulations.