Beyond the 12-Day War: What's Next for Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Mideast Peace?

He came, he bombed, and now he says the war is over—at least that’s what President Donald Trump wants people to believe. Just two days after secret U.S. bombers hit Iran’s underground nuclear sites, Trump declared a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump praised both countries, saying, “I want to congratulate Israel and Iran for having the strength, courage, and wisdom to end what we should now call ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’”

According to reports, Donald Trump first got Israel to agree to a ceasefire and then passed on the offer to Iran through Qatar. Trump said that Iran would stop fighting first, and Israel would follow 12 hours later.He added that both countries would stay “peaceful and respectful.” In an interview with NBC News, Trump said he believed the ceasefire would last “forever.”

The news brought some relief—stock markets went up and oil prices came down—especially after Iran’s foreign minister said there was no official agreement, but that Iran would stop fighting if Israel did the same.

However, just as the ceasefire was supposed to begin, Iran reportedly fired missiles that killed three people in southern Israel—possibly as a final act of defiance (openly refusing to obey to the order) before ending the attacks.

The announcement is the latest surprising development in a fast-moving conflict that began on June 13, when Israel suddenly attacked Iran. Israeli fighter jets and secret agents took down many of Iran’s air defence systems, killed key nuclear scientists and military generals, and started destroying Iran’s scattered nuclear sites—sites that were believed to be close to producing nuclear weapons.

Then, on June 22, the United States joined the fight with a major operation called “Midnight Hammer.” B-2 stealth bombers flew all the way from Missouri, USA, in a 37-hour mission to drop 14 powerful “bunker-buster” bombs—called GBU-57—on Iran’s underground uranium facilities, mainly at Natanz and Fordow.In addition, around 30 Tomahawk missiles, likely launched from submarines, targeted nuclear sites in the city of Isfahan.

The next day, Iran responded with a limited counterattack. It fired 14 missiles—one for each American bunker-buster bomb—at the U.S. military base in Al-Udeid, Qatar.Almost all the missiles were shot down, and since Iran gave an early warning, no one was hurt. President Trump shared this update and announced the ceasefire just two hours later.

J.D. Vance, the U.S. Vice President, was at the Fox News studio when Donald Trump announced the ceasefire. He said the American airstrikes had achieved their goal. “We are sure Iran can no longer build a nuclear bomb,” he said. According to The Economist, Vance also claimed that most of Iran’s enriched uranium was likely destroyed in the attacks.

Now, three big questions remain for the region:

1. Will the ceasefire last?
2. Can a new peace deal be made to limit Iran’s nuclear program?
3. Will the Middle East become more peaceful after this war?

These are the key things the world is watching closely.

1. Let’s start with the ceasefire.Neither Israel nor Iran has officially confirmed that the fighting has stopped, but both have strong reasons to pause.

Iran’s religious government often chants slogans like “Death to America,” but for many years, it has avoided direct war with the U.S. Instead, it relies on proxy militias—armed groups in other countries like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—that fight on Iran’s behalf. Iran supports these groups by giving them weapons, money, and training, allowing it to influence regional conflicts without directly taking part.

Right now, Iran is facing serious problems at home, its army has not been able to stop Israeli attacks, and many of its allies across the region have become weaker. Now that the U.S. has entered the war, Iran may choose to step back and recover from the damage.

2. As for Israel, it’s unlikely that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will go against Donald Trump—especially after praising his major military action. Israeli military officials believe they have already hit almost all the important targets in Iran. Some even say that Israel could announce victory and stop fighting, even without an official ceasefire.

Netanyahu may now feel that he has scored a big win against Israel’s main enemy, which could be seen as a major achievement in his career.

Trump, on the other hand, doesn’t want the war to continue for too long. He has promised the American people that he won’t drag the country into another long war like the ones in Iraq or Afghanistan, which he has often criticized.

3.When it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, there’s a big concern—it cannot “unlearn” what it already knows. Even though many of its nuclear sites may have been destroyed, Iran still has the knowledge and skills to build nuclear weapons. Feeling embarrassed and angry, Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, might now believe that having nuclear weapons is the only way to protect his government.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said it doesn’t know where Iran’s official stock of highly enriched uranium—about 400kg at 60% purity—is being kept. If Iran has secretly saved some uranium machines (called centrifuges), it could quickly make even purer material—up to 90%—which is needed to make nuclear bombs. That amount could be enough to build around ten nuclear weapons.

4.Back in 2015, President Barack Obama signed a nuclear deal with Iran. The agreement allowed Iran to enrich uranium, but only in small amounts and under strict international checks.The goal was to make sure Iran stayed at least a year away from being able to build a nuclear bomb.

However, when Donald Trump became president, he cancelled that deal during his first term. By the time Israel attacked Iran recently, experts believed Iran was just days or weeks away from having enough nuclear material to make a bomb—a stage often called a "breakout."

The worry grew even more after intelligence reports said Iran had started working on ways to make a nuclear warhead that could fit on a missile.

In recent talks with Iran, Donald Trump has asked for much stricter limits—he wants Iran to stop enriching uranium completely, or come close to it.

5.His special representative, Steve Witkoff, suggested a compromise: Iran could still take part in uranium enrichment, but it would have to happen outside the country as part of a group effort with other countries in the region. It’s unclear if this offer is still being discussed—or if either Iran or Israel would accept such a deal. The bigger question now is whether the Middle East can truly become peaceful while Iran’s hardline religious leaders stay in power.

6.If Israel finds out that Iran is secretly working on nuclear weapons again, it will likely attack—even if the U.S. doesn’t help. Israel also wants Iran to stop building up its regular weapons and supporting armed groups in other countries. After more than a year of fighting Iran’s allies and blocking missiles from places like Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen, Israel will push for stronger limits on conventional missiles to keep the region safe.

7. Some people in Israel and the U.S. believe that lasting peace in the region is only possible if Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is removed from power. On June 23, Israel targeted key parts of Iran’s control system—bombing the infamous Evin prison and the headquarters of the Basij militia, which has violently put down protests in the past. Israel hoped that ordinary Iranians would rise up against their rulers—but that was unlikely to happen while bombs were still falling. However, if the fighting stops and people in Iran begin to realise how much damage their leaders' decisions have caused, there could still be public anger. Until then, Israel and its Arab partners will want the U.S. to continue helping protect the region’s security.

8. Through “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the U.S. showed how important its role still is in global security. But many in Donald Trump’s team believe America should stop acting like the world’s policeman and instead focus more on the Pacific region, especially to deal with China. Vice President JD Vance, who supports this idea of stepping back, said that how Iran is ruled should be decided by the Iranian people. However, he also warned that if Iran ever tries to build a nuclear weapon again, it will have to face the full strength of the U.S. military. For now, the big U.S. attack followed by a sudden ceasefire does not mean real peace has been achieved—at least not yet.