'War possibility with India real': Pakistani leaders raise noise. Do they think Trump will save them, or are they playing to domestic gallery?

There is a renewed, though possibly unsustainable, sense of belligerence in the Pakistani establishment against India, as it's possibly emboldened by recent perceived closeness to the US President Donald Trump's administration. Its defence minister has just said the possibility of war with India is 'real' , and both politicians and military officials of Pakistan have been exuding a strange level of confidence, despite the destruction Pakistan faced during Operation Sindoor, India's military response to the Pahalgam terror attack. Both the political elite and military establishment have turned up a notch their hostile rhetoric toward India, almost always hinting at renewed conflict. The tone, increasingly bellicose and defiant, suggests Islamabad is gambling on external backing—particularly from Trump-era US alignments—to bolster its posture.

'Risks are real': The rhetoric of provocation from Pakistan

The latest in this is the Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif's blunt remarks that “the possibility of war with India is real and cannot be dismissed.” In comments reported on Wednesday (Sep 8), he said Pakistan is ready and would “do better than before”, if a conflict erupts with India. This comes close on the heels of his words that India would be “buried under the wreckage of its warplanes”. Those comments came after Indian Army Chief Gen Upendra Dwivedi warned that Pakistan would be “erased from the world map” if it continued to support terrorism.

Pakistan's threat to strike Indian infrastructure

Asif was specific in his remarks, hinting that in the event of war, Pakistan would strike Indian infrastructure built on the Indus River. This was interpreted as Pakistan possibly considering Indian actions on hydrological projects or dams as acts of aggression. “If they attempt to build any kind of structure, we will strike it,” he said, equating water control to an existential conflict for Pakistan. For context, India has put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance since the Pahalgam attack.

Is Pakistan reinforcing military presence?

Asif has repeatedly warned of an “imminent Indian incursion”. He said earlier that Pakistan has reinforced its forces and strategic decisions had been made accordingly. This was interpreted as troop and logistics movements near the border, but Asif partially backtracked, saying his words had been misinterpreted, even though he still insisted that tensions remained high.

The Pakistan Army's 'mutual destruction' warnings

The Pakistan Army has been warning that any future conflict could usher in “cataclysmic devastation,” even as it vowed to respond “swiftly, decisively and destructively,” to India. In recent statements, it has said it would fight to “every nook and corner” of India, and ensure “mutual destruction” if war breaks out.
Pakistani Army Chief Gen Asim Munir has not held back either, having once warned that Islamabad “would take half the world down” with it in a major conflict with India, widely seen as nuclear sabre-rattling. He even singled out one of India's major oil refineries as a possible future target.

The strategic posturing could be because of US closeness

The escalation in rhetoric could be due to Pakistan's thinking that the US has tilted towards it under President Donald Trump. The optics was unmissable in a recent Oval Office meeting between Trump and Gen Munir, with PM Sharif in tow. The picture of Munir gifting Trump what appeared to be rare earths or critical minerals went viral. A section of Pakistani opinion makers feel the US under Trump may take a favorable or lenient stance towards Pakistan. This is emboldening Pakistan to crank up pressure on India, expecting diplomatic cover or acquiescence from Washington.

Or is it to build legitimacy to a government seen as unpopular?

Wide swaths of Pakistani society think of the Sharif-Munir establishment as illegitimate, with the main opposition leader Imran Khan jailed for months. Adversarial posturing against India would help the Sharif regime to divert attention by stoking Pakistani nationalism, to distract the public from internal dissent, economic stress, poverty, inflation and persistent governance deficits. Framing the Indus Waters Treaty abeyance as an ‘existential threat’ from India to Pakistan is also a way of gaining local support.