Kerala's population is ageing like Japan's, but faces different challenge: Here's how

The NFHS-6 has released new data which highlights a profound shift in the demographic future of India as Kerala has the country’s highest share of elderly citizens at 20.7 per cent. The progress is a result of the extended life expectancy, as the state is confronting a unique social reality. While fewer children, increased longevity, and high rates of global migration for education and employment show a rise in development, they also indicate that Kerala's rising elderly population is increasingly spending their later years with fewer family members around to care for them.

This shifting social structure is testing traditional family arrangements. Increasingly, elderly citizens live in financially comfortable homes with children working outside the city or in India, who often leave them completely alone. Consequently, old-age vulnerability in Kerala is no longer dictated by conventional income metrics; it is increasingly defined by a "poverty of care."

As society becomes more mobile and urban, functions once managed entirely within households now demand structured institutional support to preserve the dignity and autonomy of seniors. Fortunately, Kerala possesses a unique institutional advantage through its local governments, which are ideally positioned to support this growing demographic.

Japan’s elderly population

According to Japan's internal affairs ministry data, the number of people aged 65 or older in Japan stands at 36.19 million, as of September 2025, falling by 50,000 from a year earlier. Japan's population of people aged 65 or older is projected to reach 15.68 million, accounting for 26.2 per cent of the total male population. In addition, the estimated number of women aged 65 or older stands at 20.51 million, which accounts for 32.4 per cent of the overall female population.

The share of senior citizens aged 65 and older in the overall population continues to grow annually. Projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research indicate this demographic will make up 34.8 per cent of the population by 2040, as the nation's second baby boomer generation (born between 1971 and 1974) crosses the age of 65.

In 2024, the number of employed seniors aged 65 or older climbed for the 21st consecutive year, reaching a record high of 9.3 million. This group accounted for 13.7 per cent of the total workforce aged 15 and above, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase. Additionally, the employment rate specifically within the 65-and-over age group rose by 0.5 percentage points to reach 25.7 per cent.

Among these older workers, the wholesale and retail sectors employed the largest share at 1.33 million people. The medical and welfare sectors followed with 1.15 million workers, while the service industry employed 1.04 million. Excluding corporate executives, there were 5.63 million employees in this age bracket, with non-regular workers making up the vast majority at 4.33 million, or 76.9 per cent.