Pakistan is set to become the third-most populous nation by 2050 despite its fertility rate having been slashed to almost half in 30 years.
According to the United Nations World Fertility Report 2024, Pakistan’s fertility rate has significantly declined over the past three decades, dropping from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 in 2024.
In spite of this downward trend, the country is still on track to become the third most populous nation by 2050, overtaking the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia. Pakistan’s population, which stood at 31 million when it gained independence in 1947, had risen to 241 million by the 2023 census.
Pakistan’s population will exceed 380 million by 2050: UN projection
The UN projects that Pakistan’s population will exceed 380 million by 2050. Meanwhile, the fertility rate is expected to decline further, reaching 2.5 by 2054.
The report also pointed out that Pakistan, along with Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, will contribute to 43 per cent of the world’s births in 2024.
“Three other country examples … had fertility levels still above six live births per woman in 1994, declining by 2024 to 3.6 in Pakistan, 3.9 in Ethiopia and 4.4 in Nigeria,” the report said. It also forecasts a continued decline in fertility rates globally, although countries like Pakistan will maintain levels above replacement rates.
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"Reducing growth in the numbers of live births in the future would allow governments and families to allocate resources more efficiently to invest in children and adolescent health and well-being," the report said.
Additionally, the UN has called for measures such as ending child marriages, improving access to sexual and reproductive healthcare, and enhancing maternal care for young mothers. "Governments should also strengthen laws and enforcement mechanisms to protect the rights of girls and women," the report added.
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Pakistan has been trying to address population growth with family planning initiatives, distribution of contraceptives, and education campaigns in rural areas.
The government has also collaborated with international organisations like the UN Population Fund to support these efforts but the progress is little because of cultural and religious challenges, along with gender inequality and restricted access to education.
(With inputs from agencies)