Opinion: BJP trying to win over tribal communities in Gujarat. Why?

From a strictly electoral perspective, the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat are not a very important factor. They constitute just seven per cent of the State’s population. And since they are thinly spread across the State, their role in deciding the outcome of an election in the 182 Assembly seats is limited. Yet, their support is essential for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress for a different reason. The BJP’s 'Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas' slogan would sound ineffectual if the Scheduled Castes failed to vote for the party. The Congress’s ‘pro-poor’ image would take a beating if it could not win over this most marginalised section of society.

On the other hand, the Scheduled Tribes form 15 per cent of the State’s population. This significant presence alongside the fact that they are largely concentrated in eastern Gujarat, gives them political leverage in, at least, 25 Assembly constituencies in the general category. Besides, they are also important for the ‘inclusive development’, a message the two main political rivals in the State have adopted to sound credible.

Taken together, the 22 per cent they represent is a formidable number. Add to it the number of reserved seats they share between themselves — 40 in all, with 13 Assembly constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes and 27 for Scheduled Tribes — and it is evident that this taken together is crucial for any political party’s prospects in the coming State election.

If this is true, there is another reality. It is that the two groups do not have a common leader who can optimally exploit the strength for political empowerment. Nor do the SC and ST groups have common concerns, other than the abstract desire to lead a life that has more of dignity and social justice. Political observers, and definitely political strategists, realise that sharply delineated issues and not generalities work in electoral campaigns.

The Scheduled Castes have, at least ostensibly, found a messiah in Jignesh Mevani. He came into the limelight after the Una incident in 2016, when a group of cow vigilantes professing Right-wing credentials attacked members of the ‘low caste’ community. That turned him firmly against the BJP. Earlier, Mevani had led a number of protests demanding land rights for the Scheduled Castes, but in those days he had no political leaning — or at least he did not overtly display them. He positioned himself as a champion of the rights of the underprivileged and claimed to have no political ambition. But last month he filed his nomination from the Vadnagar reserved seat. The Congress has not fielded any candidate from the constituency though it has a sitting MLA from there, and has decided to back Mevani. The Scheduled Castes leader has also decided to support the Congress in its battle against the BJP.

While he has taken the political plunge, it may not be smooth sailing for him. Upset that a seat which their party has held has been given to a non-Congressman, many grassroots workers of the Congress are reportedly preparing to put a spanner in the works. The BJP is working overtime to exploit the situation to its benefit. In any case, his political relevance is only proportional to the percentage of Scheduled Castes population in the State, and the fact that he is involved in a contest of his own will curtail his ability to canvas for the Congress across the State.

There is a general perception that the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat have traditionally favoured the Congress. This is not borne out by the electoral result of the 2012 Assembly election. The BJP had then won in 10 of the 13 reserved constituencies. It remains to be seen whether, in the new context, the party retains the sway.

The Congress had performed better with the Scheduled Tribes. Of the 27 seats reserved for this group in 2012, the party had triumphed in 16. The BJP had secured 10 seats while one went to the Janata Dal (United) candidate, Chotubhai Vasava. In the 2007 Assembly election, there were 26 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, of which the Congress had won 16 and the BJP, nine; one seat had then too gone to the Janata Dal (United). The BJP’s situation was worse in the 1998 election, when it could win only eight of the 26 seats.

The Bhil community is the single largest constituent of the Scheduled Tribes, forming an overwhelming 45 per cent. The other important sub-group is the Bhopa Rabari whose members are largely concentrated in north Gujarat. It is no surprise that the two national parties are putting everything they have to get the approval of these two communities especially and the Scheduled Tribes in general.

The Congress is banking on the ‘failure’ of successive BJP regimes in the State to effectively implement the Forest Rights Act of 2006, which was supposed to provide title deeds of land claimed by the tribals under this law. Although nearly 70 per cent of disputed claims forwarded under the Act have been settled in the State, Gujarat still lags behind other States in the matter. According to a Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs data, the Gujarat Government had managed to distribute land to just 38 per cent of the claimants. This is the record, the Congress has claimed, of the BJP regime and reflects the latter’s neglect of tribal rights.

But the BJP is confident that the surge of tribal support it has seen since 1998 will continue. It has been pulling out all stops to win over the Scheduled Tribes. Only recently, a tribal museum opened in Surat with a grant of one crore rupees from the University Grants Commission. While speaking at a public meeting recently in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the contribution of tribal leaders in the country’s freedom movement. He laid the foundation stone for a tribal museum close to the Sardar Sarovar dam in Narmada district, and promised more such museums across the country.

The BJP’s push for tribal support has also to do with the Hardik Patel factor. Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes. It has placed hopes in the work that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been doing in the tribal belt of the State over the years. However, the Congress is in no mood to give up its advantage. If it can hold on to its support base among the Scheduled Tribes and Hardik Patel manages to deliver on his promise, the BJP could be at some disadvantage.

(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).