New Delhi, India

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Earth is on the cusp of exceeding an internationally agreed-upon point for global warming, according to researchers.

According to the study published on Monday in Nature Climate Change journal, if greenhouse gases continue to increase at the current rate, Earth's temperature might surpass the ideal threshold, causing disastrous consequences in several regions worldwide. 

In 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change created the Paris Agreement, an international treaty signed by several countries to mitigate climate change, establishing a 1.5 degrees Celsius global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels as the long-term warming limit.

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In 2021, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) determined a carbon budget of 500 billion metric tonnes would keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius until mid-2032. But, according to the study, if carbon dioxide emissions remain at the current levels, the remaining carbon budget will be exhausted by early 2029. The most recent analysis brings the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius three years closer.

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Researchers say surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark increases the risk of warming-related catastrophes. 

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In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that global warming would threaten coral reefs, melt Antarctic ice sheets, increase sea levels, make the ocean more acidic and negatively impact crops. 

Rob Jackson, a professor of Earth System Science at Stanford University, told ABC News, "The world will blow past 1.5 degrees Celsius well before today's kindergarteners finish school."

Once the Earth passes the 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark, the next countdown would be two degrees Celsius of warming, likely to be reached in the 2040s, says the study. It also mentioned that a half-degree rise in warming can lead to even more catastrophic climate-related situations. 

If the global mean temperature increases to three degrees Celsius, many places will become unliveable. 

Although climate researchers have not predicted a specific time for the surpassing, they have mentioned the intensity of the disastrous impacts it can cause. 

While droughts will worsen and last longer, hurricanes will increase in ocean waters. Wildfires will become more common due to the hot climates and drying landscapes. Furthermore, melting ice sheets will flood populated coastal regions. 

Extreme weather events in recent years are some consequences of climate change due to global warming. According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization, published in October 2023, global water cycles have become erratic due to warming temperatures. Sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers are rapidly melting. 

(With inputs from agencies)

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