Climate crisis: Heat-related deaths might rise 370% by 2050s, claims study

A recent analysis published by the Lancet has predicted that yearly heat-related deaths could increase by 370 per cent by the 2050s worldwide if global temperatures rise by 2°C over pre-industrial levels.

Vulnerable populations across the world, which include the elderly and children, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days due to climate change.

These projections are part of the latest edition of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change.

Add WION as a Preferred Source

“Our health stocktake reveals that the growing hazards of climate change are costing lives and livelihoods worldwide today. Projections of a 2°C hotter world reveal a dangerous future, and are a grim reminder that the pace and scale of mitigation efforts seen so far have been woefully inadequate to safeguard people’s health and safety”, Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown at University College, London, said in a statement.

Watch:Nations voice their concerns about climate change | WION Climate Tracker

“With 1,337 tonnes of carbon dioxide still emitted every second, we aren’t reducing emissions anywhere near fast enough to keep climate hazards within the levels that our health systems can cope with,” the statement added.

The study represents the work of 114 experts from 52 research institutions and UN agencies, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Significance ahead of COP28 Summit

This report comes at a crucial time ahead of the climate summit COP28 that will be held in Dubai in less than a month. For the first time in the history of climate conferences, there is an entire day dedicated to health.

“There is still room for hope” Romanello added in the statement.

“The health focus at COP28 is the opportunity of our lifetime to secure commitments and action. If climate negotiations drive an equitable and rapid phase out of fossils fuels, accelerate mitigation, and support adaptation efforts for health, the ambitions of the Paris Agreement to limit global heating to 1.5 °C are still achievable, and a prosperous healthy future lies within reach,” the statement reads further.

Impact on health and economy

Even with the current global average heating of 1.14°C over the past decade, an analysis revealed that people, on average, faced 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures during 2018-2022.

Alarmingly, over 60 per cent of these occurrences were more than twice as likely due to man-made climate change.

The impact on health was evident, with an 85 per cent increase in heat-related deaths among individuals aged over 65 from 2013-2022, surpassing the expected 38 per cent increase based on unchanged temperatures since 1991-2000.

The economic ramifications were substantial, with the total value of losses from extreme weather events reaching an estimated $264 billion in 2022, marking a 23 per cent increase compared to 2010-2014.

Heat exposure contributed to a staggering 490 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2022, reflecting an almost 42 per cent surge from 1991-2000. Notably, income losses disproportionately affected the GDP of low-income (6.1 per cent) and middle-income countries (3.8 per cent). These escalating losses not only pose a threat to livelihoods but also curtail the ability to effectively cope with and recover from the consequences of climate change.

(With inputs from agencies)