Paris, France

The ability to predict earthquakes has long eluded scientists, as the search for reliable precursors — early indicators of an impending earthquake — has remained fruitless. 

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However, two researchers may have made a significant breakthrough in this field. According to their findings, earthquakes could potentially be detected through GPS measurements, and that too 'several hours' before the main event.

How will this work?

Quentin Bletery, a seismologist at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement and the Université Côte d'Azur in France, believes that this discovery is a significant step forward.

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"Conceptually, that tells you that it is possible to do it," he said, as quoted by Space.com. 

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By analysing a dataset maintained by the University of Nevada at Reno, Bletery and his colleague Jean-Mathieu Nocquet focused on GPS stations located near known earthquake zones with magnitudes of 7.0 or higher. 

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They examined the recorded positions of these stations in the 48 hours leading up to each earthquake, comparing the actual motion with the expected motion caused by the quake.

Their research revealed that in the final two hours before an earthquake, the ground's motion often began to align with the expected motion, intensifying as the time of the quake approached. This pattern was not typically observed during randomly selected two-hour windows when no earthquakes happened. These findings suggest that the motion observed in the final two hours may serve as precursors to earthquakes.

Is this the ultimate protection plan?

The research, published in the journal Science, provides valuable insights into earthquake behaviour and offers hope for future advancements in earthquake prediction.

Despite this breakthrough, seismologists, as per the report, still face significant challenges in transforming this knowledge into a reliable earthquake prediction method. 

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Current instruments are not sensitive enough to detect this motion in advance. Bletery estimates that existing equipment would need to be approximately 50 times more sensitive to detect precursors to earthquakes.

"That's a huge technological gap," said Bletery, adding, "we just don't have the technology yet to do it."

While this technological gap presents a significant obstacle, Bletery believes that the discovery itself is a sign of progress. It challenges the notion that earthquakes are chaotic, instantaneous events caused by sudden fault movements, he remarked. 

Instead, he said that the observed two-hour preview suggests that earthquakes may have precursor elements that could potentially be identified before they occur.

The researchers' findings also raised intriguing questions. When examining GPS data along Japan's coast, they discovered that the motions seemed to match far in advance of the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that triggered a devastating tsunami in 2011. The motions appeared to follow a repeating cycle of approximately 3.6 hours. The cause of this cycle remains a mystery.

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