What will happen on Dec 22, 2032? Not good things for our Moon, as scientists await major event

NASA has upped the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in 2032 from 3.8 to 4.3 per cent. The space rock stirred panic among Earthlings earlier this year when scientists noticed that it was on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth in eight years. Multiple calculations and weeks later, everyone heaves a sigh of relief. The good news was that asteroid 2024 YR4, 53-67 metres in diameter, about the size of a 10-storey building, was not moving towards our planet. But the bad news was that it is on course to smash into our Moon.

It might not exactly be bad news since the Moon is already riddled with craters, and one more wouldn't make any difference. However, there were fears that the collision might move our lunar satellite out of its orbit.

While the probability of the asteroid crashing into it has increased, experts have clarified that the Moon's orbit won't be impacted in any way by the asteroid.

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James Webb observed asteroid 2024 YR4

The James Webb Space Telescope continued to observe the asteroid even though it had moved far away from Earth. The last of them came in May, when the data suggested a higher chance of collision with the Moon.

Also Read: NASA bumps up probability of 'city killer' asteroid 2024-YR4 slamming into our planet Earth in 8 years

Andy Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, and his team used Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera to monitor the asteroid. NASA said that this data improved their prediction of where the asteroid will be on December 22, 2032 by 20 per cent.

Asteroid will return in 2028

Now, asteroid 2024 YR4 has snuck behind the sun and is no longer visible. Its next appearance is not scheduled until 2028. Scientists are planning to observe it again to see if there is a further change in its trajectory. NASA has not said anything about whether or not its impact probability could evolve in the next few years.

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Scientists are gearing up to see the asteroid colliding with the Moon in 2032, if it happens. They plan on seeing the action live if it hits the Earth-facing side.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first seen by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile in December 2024. It was 829,000 kilometres away from Earth at the time. Alarm bells started to ring when scientists said that it could hit Earth in 2032. There was about a 1 per cent chance of this happening on December 22, 2032. This increased to 3 per cent in the next few weeks. However, before NASA could begin scrambling for tools to deflect and break the asteroid, experts confirmed that Earth is safe.