NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) has raised the likelihood of a "city-killing" asteroid colliding with Earth in 2032. On Tuesday (Feb 18), the space agency released its latest estimates, which predict that now the risk of the asteroid hitting Earth has risen to 3.1 per cent.

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What are the chances that this 'city-killer' will hit Earth?

With the latest estimates, the danger that the asteroid will strike our planet on December 22, 2032, has gone up from the previous 1 in 64 chance to a more concerning 1 in 32. 

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What if the asteroid does smash into our planet?

NASA's telescopes first spotted 2024-YR4 27 million miles away, immediately placing it at the top of the agency's Sentry risk list, which tracks Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that could collide with our planet. 

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was spotted on December 27, 2024, by Chile's El Sauce Observatory, measures between 130 feet (39.62 metres) and 300 feet (91.44 metres) across. 

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While it is far from the six-mile-wide behemoth asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs millions of years ago, its impact could still be devastating. 

If it collides with Earth, scientists warn of devastating consequences. The impact would unleash energy equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT, carving a 3,000-foot-wide crater in the ground. This, as per Daily Mail, means the explosion would have a force 500 times greater than the Hiroshima atomic bomb dropped during World War II.

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If it explodes midair—like the Tunguska asteroid of 1908, which wiped out 80 million trees over 830 square miles of Siberian forest and reportedly killed three people—it could be equally catastrophic.  

Based on current calculations, NASA has mapped a "risk corridor", identifying potential impact zones. The asteroid's path currently stretches from South America across the Atlantic, through sub-Saharan Africa, over the Arabian Sea, and into India. However, this could change as more data is collected.

Why is it called a city killer?

2024-YR4 has been classified as a 'city-killer,' because shockwaves radiating from an impact would wipe out a major city, warn experts.

Richard Moissl, head of planetary defence at the European Space Agency, as per Daily Mail, emphasised that while the situation is serious, it's no global catastrophe. "This is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city," he said.

NASA now ranks 2024 YR4 as the most threatening asteroid ever recorded, surpassing Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7 per cent chance of striking Earth before further observations ruled it out.

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If the probability of impact surpasses 10 per cent, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) would issue a global alert, prompting "all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness".

(With inputs from agencies)