'Once in 1,000 years...': NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4 can hit the Moon. Is Earth safe?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 presented a massive scare in recent weeks when scientists noticed that the space rock might make an impact on Earth in the year 2032. However, after several calculations, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have ruled out that it is a risk. But turns out that our satellite, the moon, is not out of the woods. It seems the asteroid is heading its way now.

2024 YR4 has been keeping scientists on their toes ever since it emerged that it might impact our planet on Dec 22, 2032. It started off with a one in 83 chance of a direct hit and the potential to cause "severe damage to a local region".

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That risk at one point rose to one in a 32 chance of an impact. The region of impact was calculated to be somewhere across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, or South Asia.

But Earthlings can now heave a sigh of relief. From as high as 3.1 per cent, the risk of impact is now down to just 0.001 per cent. The asteroid is about the size of a football pitch, which is 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 metres) wide.

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But just as it seemed all was fine now, scientists say that the asteroid might now become a threat to our moon. According to NASA, 2024 YR4 has a slight chance of hitting the Moon. The odds have risen to one in 55 (1.8 per cent chance). The space agency has predicted this number to grow in the coming weeks.

“There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon,” a NASA spokesperson said.

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When will asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the Moon?

The predicted impact with the Moon is expected to happen around the same window as was predicted for Earth - Dec 2032.

Lindley Johnson, Planetary Defense Officer Emeritus with NASA, was quoted as saying by the Houston Chronicle that an impact between the asteroid of this size and the moon would be a very rare occurrence. He says something like this only happens once in a thousand years.

While this won't affect Earth in any way, the resulting crater and the swirling debris in the form of meteoroids can impact future moon missions, besides man-made craft and other objects on the moon's surface.

Studying asteroid 2024 YR4

NASA and ESA plan on studying asteroid 2024 YR4 when it makes an extremely close approach to Earth in 2032. It would present the perfect opportunity to learn about its composition and ultimately its origin.

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For now, NASA will aim the James Webb Space Telescope at the asteroid in the coming weeks to see it up close. But they only have a few weeks to look at it since it will soon become invisible as it moves away from Earth. It won't return to sight before 2028, and who knows, things might change at the time.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object and was first spotted by a telescope in Chile on Dec 24, 2024.