Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2030s. Previous models underestimated trends, say experts

New Delhi, India

There can be no sea ice left in the Arctic roughly a decade earlier than expected, warned scientists in another sign of the climate crisis accelerating faster than expected as pollution continues to heat the planet.

Journal Nature Communications published a new study on Tuesday which stated that Arctic sea ice is likely to completely disappear during the month of September in the 2030s. 

The scientists stated that even if planet-heating pollution is significantly reduced, the sea ice in the Arctic may still disappear in summer by the 2050s.

The changes from 1979 to 2019 were analysed by the researchers, as they compared different satellite data and climate models to understand how Arctic sea ice was changing.

It was understood that sea ice was declining largely because of human-caused, planet-heating pollution, and Arctic sea ice melting trends were underestimated by the previous models. 

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“We were surprised to find that the ice-free Arctic will be there in summer irrespective of our effort at reducing emissions, which was not expected,” stated Seung-Ki Min, lead author of the study and professor at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea, while speaking to CNN.

During the winter, Arctic ice builds up and then melts in the summer months, generally hitting its lowest levels in September, before the cycle starts again.

"Once Arctic summers become ice-free, the buildup of sea ice in the colder seasons will be much slower," Min stated. 

With a ‘higher emissions pathway’,  in which fossil fuels continue to be burned and levels of planet-warming pollution continue to increase, the study emphasises on complete loss of sea ice in the Arctic from August until as late as October before the 2080s, said Min. 

Study in contrast with the UN’s report 

The findings of the study are in contrast with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 state-of-the-science report which stated that the Arctic would be “practically ice-free near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.”

Min said that the new study shows that ice-free Arctic can occur 10 years earlier than expected, regardless of emission scenarios. 

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Researcher with the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the 2022 study's lead author Mika Rantanen said that the study benefited from “novel and state-of-the-art methodology” for predicting when the Arctic will go ice-free.

“The methodology is very careful and brings a high degree of certainty in the attribution,” stated Rantanen, who was not a part of the study. 

“The most striking result is not that the sea ice loss is attributed to greenhouse gas increases, which was already largely known, but that they project the ice-free Arctic earlier than previously thought by about a decade," he added.