The Arctic might witness ice-free summer days as early as the next couple of years, a study revealed. According to the study published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, the Arctic could see summer days without sea ice in the next 10 years, which is earlier than the previous projections.

The Arctic might witness ice-free summer days as early as the next couple of years, a study revealed. According to the study published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, the Arctic could see summer days without sea ice in the next 10 years, which is earlier than the previous projections. By 2050, the Arctic might see an entire month without floating ice during September. It is a time of the year when the region's sea ice coverage is the least. However, by the end of the century, the ice-free period could last up to many months in a year, based on future emission scenarios. Researchers do not mean zero ice in the water when they say ice-free Arctic. They use the term when the ocean has less than a million square kilometres (386,000 square miles) of ice. In recent years, the Arctic Ocean has had around 3.3 million square kilometres of sea ice at its minimum in September. ALSO READ | Underwater curtains can save the 'Doomsday glacier'. But there is a massive price tag attached Alexandra Jahn, an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and fellow at CU Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, analysed the previous studies on sea ice projections and sea ice coverage data from computational climate models. Using this data, they figured out how, in the future, the Arctic might change regularly. The team projected that under all emission scenarios, the Arctic Ocean could go ice-free for the first time in August or September between the 2020s and 2030s. "When it comes to communicating what scientists expect to happen in the Arctic, it is important to predict when we might observe the first ice-free conditions in the Arctic, which will show up in the daily satellite data," Jahn said. According to Jahn, the main contributor to sea ice depletion is greenhouse emissions. When the ice cover decreases, the amount of heat from sunlight absorbed by the sea increases, worsening the ice melt and warming the Arctic. However, future emission levels will decide how often the ice-free condition occurs, she added. However, the bright side is that the Arctic Ocean is resilient and can recover swiftly when the atmosphere cools down. "Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take CO2 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade," Jahn said. (With inputs from agencies)

Arctic Ocean could experience ‘ice-free’ summer days within the next decade, says study

There can be no sea ice left in the Arctic roughly a decade earlier than expected, warned scientists in another sign of the climate crisis accelerating faster than expected as pollution continues to heat the planet.

Journal Nature Communications published a new study on Tuesday which stated that Arctic sea ice is likely to completely disappear during the month of September in the 2030s.&nbsp;

The scientists stated that even if planet-heating pollution is significantly reduced, the sea ice in the Arctic may still disappear in summer by the 2050s.

The changes from 1979 to 2019 were analysed by the researchers, as they compared different satellite data and climate models to understand how Arctic sea ice was changing.

It was understood that sea ice was declining largely because of human-caused, planet-heating pollution, and Arctic sea ice melting trends were underestimated by the previous models.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/science/soviet-era-rocket-makes-re-entry-to-earth-near-the-arctic-564684">Soviet-era rocket launched in 1980 makes re-entry, falls in Arctic region of Russia</a>

“We were surprised to find that the ice-free Arctic will be there in summer irrespective of our effort at reducing emissions, which was not expected,” stated Seung-Ki Min, lead author of the study and professor at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea, while speaking to CNN.

During the winter, Arctic ice builds up and then melts in the summer months, generally hitting its lowest levels in September, before the cycle starts again.

"Once Arctic summers become ice-free, the buildup of sea ice in the colder seasons will be much slower," Min stated.&nbsp;

With a ‘higher emissions pathway’, &nbsp;in which fossil fuels continue to be burned and levels of planet-warming pollution continue to increase, the study emphasises on complete loss of sea ice in the Arctic from August until as late as October before the 2080s, said Min.&nbsp;

<h2>Study in contrast with the UN’s report&nbsp;</h2>

The findings of the study are in contrast with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 state-of-the-science report which stated that the Arctic would be “practically ice-free near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.”

Min said that the new study shows that ice-free Arctic can occur 10 years earlier than expected, regardless of emission scenarios.&nbsp;

WATCH |&nbsp;Arctic is warming quadruple times faster than the world, research tells

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Researcher with the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the 2022 study's lead author Mika Rantanen said that the study benefited from “novel and state-of-the-art methodology” for predicting when the Arctic will go ice-free.

“The methodology is very careful and brings a high degree of certainty in the attribution,” stated Rantanen, who was not a part of the study.&nbsp;

“The most striking result is not that the sea ice loss is attributed to greenhouse gas increases, which was already largely known, but that they project the ice-free Arctic earlier than previously thought by about a decade," he added.&nbsp;

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The ice-free conditions will impact Arctic indigenous communities as their hunting and traveling will be affected. Animals that depend on sea ice will feel the impact.&nbsp;“As Arctic warming is enhanced, permafrost will also melt earlier and many species, including polar bears, walruses and reindeer, will have trouble surviving,” added Min. 
 
 
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There can be no sea ice left in the Arctic roughly a decade earlier than expected, warned scientists in another sign of the climate crisis accelerating faster than expected as pollution continues to heat the planet.

There can be no sea ice left in the Arctic roughly a decade earlier than expected, warned scientists in another sign of the climate crisis accelerating faster than expected as pollution continues to heat the planet. Journal Nature Communications published a new study on Tuesday which stated that Arctic sea ice is likely to completely disappear during the month of September in the 2030s. The scientists stated that even if planet-heating pollution is significantly reduced, the sea ice in the Arctic may still disappear in summer by the 2050s. The changes from 1979 to 2019 were analysed by the researchers, as they compared different satellite data and climate models to understand how Arctic sea ice was changing. It was understood that sea ice was declining largely because of human-caused, planet-heating pollution, and Arctic sea ice melting trends were underestimated by the previous models. ALSO READ | Soviet-era rocket launched in 1980 makes re-entry, falls in Arctic region of Russia “We were surprised to find that the ice-free Arctic will be there in summer irrespective of our effort at reducing emissions, which was not expected,” stated Seung-Ki Min, lead author of the study and professor at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea, while speaking to CNN. During the winter, Arctic ice builds up and then melts in the summer months, generally hitting its lowest levels in September, before the cycle starts again. "Once Arctic summers become ice-free, the buildup of sea ice in the colder seasons will be much slower," Min stated. With a ‘higher emissions pathway’, in which fossil fuels continue to be burned and levels of planet-warming pollution continue to increase, the study emphasises on complete loss of sea ice in the Arctic from August until as late as October before the 2080s, said Min. Study in contrast with the UN’s report The findings of the study are in contrast with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 state-of-the-science report which stated that the Arctic would be “practically ice-free near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.” Min said that the new study shows that ice-free Arctic can occur 10 years earlier than expected, regardless of emission scenarios. WATCH | Arctic is warming quadruple times faster than the world, research tells Researcher with the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the 2022 study's lead author Mika Rantanen said that the study benefited from “novel and state-of-the-art methodology” for predicting when the Arctic will go ice-free. “The methodology is very careful and brings a high degree of certainty in the attribution,” stated Rantanen, who was not a part of the study. “The most striking result is not that the sea ice loss is attributed to greenhouse gas increases, which was already largely known, but that they project the ice-free Arctic earlier than previously thought by about a decade," he added. The ice-free conditions will impact Arctic indigenous communities as their hunting and traveling will be affected. Animals that depend on sea ice will feel the impact. “As Arctic warming is enhanced, permafrost will also melt earlier and many species, including polar bears, walruses and reindeer, will have trouble surviving,” added Min. WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2030s. Previous models underestimated trends, say experts

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Arctic Ocean could experience ‘ice-free’ summer days within the next decade, says study

Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2030s. Previous models underestimated trends, say experts