India in danger zone as out-of-control spacecraft comes crashing down, estimate suggests

The Soviet spacecraft that is tumbling down towards Earth, has a high chance of hitting land, map has revealed. This includes several parts of the world, including whole of India. Australia, South Africa, South America, United States are also at risk of being impacted by Kosmos 482. The exact date it will crash is not known, NASA say it is expected to happen between May 9 and May 13, with May 10 as the most likely date.

According to scientists, the 494-kg spacecraft can fall within 52 degrees north or south of the equator. This puts several regions in danger. There is a considerable portion of the ocean in the region, but that doesn't diminish the fact that entire countries are at risk of having an uncontrolled spacecraft crash on their land.

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Kosmos was launched on March 31, 1972, and it was supposed to go to Venus. However, it developed technical issues, which led it to remain in Earth's orbit for 53 years. It is now being brought back to Earth, although scientists on the ground have no control over it. It is falling in a random fashion, so it is tough to know at which point it would hit. 

Oceans cover a large part of the Earth, so scientists are hopeful that it should land in the waters. However, no one is sure that that would happen.

Regions where the spacecraft can crash

Some scientists have created an estimate based on its trajectory. According to them, it will crash somewhere between 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south latitude. This covers the continental United States, Mexico, Central America, and northern parts of South America, major portions of central and southern Europe and Asia, and northern parts of Africa.

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Vast swathes of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans also make up for the impact zone. While scientists are hoping it will crash in the ocean, there is a high chance that it can fall over a populated city, a forest, a desert, or even your house.

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The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the Kosmos 482 lander, in all likelihood, will fall back in one piece. Several man-made objects fall back to Earth. However, they mostly disintegrate in the atmosphere.

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The problem with Kosmos 482 is that it was built to endure the tough environment of Venus. So there is a high chance it might not break up at all after it enters Earth's atmosphere.

A Soviet spacecraft fell in Canada

This has happened in the past as well. In 1978, a Soviet reconnaissance satellite, Kosmos 954, made an uncontrolled re-entry over Canada. It crashed into Canada’s Northwest Territories, spreading toxic waste. The USSR was asked to pay for the damages based on the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and the 1972 Space Liability Convention.