Waqf amendment issue: The amended Waqf Act has come into force in India, even as protests from the Muslim community continue against reforms of the Islamic endowment system. Vehicles and public property were burnt in protests in West Bengal, while several other states saw violence and heated debates. Petitions against the reforms are to be heard by the Supreme Court next week. Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the Waqf reform as another step towards social justice and blamed the Opposition Congress over 'minority appeasement.'

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Both the Congress-led opposition and Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party are blaming each other for politicising the issue. While Waqf reforms are being portrayed by the government as progressive, those opposing it are alarmed at the provisions in the Act that allow non-Muslims to Waqf boards. The government will have a significant role in approving waqf properties that include land and buildings, which is another area of criticism.

Chaos breaks out in Jammu and Kashmir assembly over Waqf law, NC MLAs tear bill copies- VIDEO

The issue is playing out in the courts, in parliament and state legislatures, on streets and more importantly, in the upcoming state elections up to at least 2027. Here is a look at which direction the states would go in the coming months and years on the waqf issue.

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Petitions in Supreme Court hint at politics over Waqf issue

India's Supreme Court is likely to hear on April 15 a bunch of petitions opposing the Waqf Act. The main contentions are about government interference in what's seen as essentially a religious institution, and the constitutional validity of the amended law. The government has filed a caveat, praying to the top court that its views be heard before ruling on the petitions.

Waqf (Amendment) Act comes into force from April 8: Govt notification

But a look at who filed the petitions clearly indicates that Waqf issue is highly politicised already, particularly in states where minority politics and appeasement play out regularly in electoral equations. Some of the petitions are filed by politicians themselves. Prominent among them are AIMIM president Asaduddin Owaisi and Congress MP Mohammad Jawed. Aam Admi Party MLA Amanatullah Khan is also among petitioners seeking to declare the bill unconstitutional. Other petitioners include Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) party. 

Besides them, there are several Islamic organisations that have moved the top court: All India Muslim Personal Law Board and Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind as well as Samastha Kerala Jamiatul Ulema, which is a Sunni scholars' body from Kerala.

The NGO,  Association for the Protection of Civil Rights (APCR), is also among petitioners.

A political gamble for BJP: Will Waqf reform pay off handsomely in elections?

The Waqf (Amendment) Act is now a keenly watched political issue. Particularly at stake are the upcoming state elections in rest of 2025 and all the way up to 2027. 

Among them are the states where caste and religion play a key role in electoral politics, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

Bihar will see elections at the end of 2025, while Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, will vote in 2027.

PM Modi accuses Congress of appeasement politics, says Waqf Amendment Act will ensure dignity for all

Besides these, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry are going to the polls in 2026. Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will go to elections in 2027.

But do remember that the Indian government is also pushing for a 'one-nation one-election' legislation. If that's implemented, out-of-turn elections could be declared in all states.

The Waqf reform issue will be vocalised in most of these states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. 

President Droupadi Murmu gives assent to Waqf (Amendment) bill 2025

The question is how much the local and national politicians of ruling BJP and the opposition would be able to capitalise on the reforms while going into elections. 

Let me break down the demographic and political dynamics of some of these states.

Uttar Pradesh: Another term for Yogi, or a fractured verdict?

BJP's Yogi Adityanath has been going strong in Uttar Pradesh, except for the jolt the party felt during the 2024 general elections. Polarisation along religious lines, helped by Waqf Act controversies and any related violence, could help garner public sentiment in BJP's favour going into 2027. 

The 2011 Census data showed that Hindus are nearly 80 per cent of the population, while Muslims are nearly 20 per cent. The politics of Uttar Pradesh's opposition, while advocating social justice, has always been about caste and minority appeasement. The electoral equations created by the main opposition parties - Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress - had created space for powerful castes and some Muslim leaders to win in key constituencies. It remains to be seen how much the leaders will be able to translate the anger in a section of the Muslim community about perceived government intervention on Waqf management. But it is clear that they will try.

Assam: A tinderbox of religious-ethnic politics

The BJP has been able to galvanise public opinion over the migration of Muslims into the northeastern state, mainly from neighbouring country Bangladesh but also from other states in India. The 2011 census data shows Hindus are a little over 61 per cent and Muslims nearly 34 per cent. But what has worried the majority community is that between 1971 and 1991, the decadal growth of Muslim population stood at nearly 78 per cent, mainly due to migration. 

Interestingly, the state has more Muslim majority legislative assembly constituencies: 37 as opposed to 32 for Hindus. In the other 44 constituencies, different tribal groups are in the majority. It is in this vastly differing ethno-religious mosaic that the controversial Citizenship Amendment legislation and related controversies played out nearly a decade ago. BJP was able to turn public sentiment against illegal Muslim presence into votes and came into power in the state. The Waqf issue could be another major turning point in the upcoming elections that could test whether BJP can still hold on to power.

Bihar: Religion and caste have been a key aspect of its politics

Caste and religion have been a key aspect of Bihar's politics for decades. Bihar released the caste-based survey 2022, which showed that nearly 82 per cent of the population is Hindu, while nearly 18 per cent are Muslims. Communal politics plays out in several constituencies of Bihar. It would be interesting to see if the new generation of RJD leadership can capitalise on anger over Waqf amendment. The allies of the BJP in the state have gone into a tizzy, figuring out the potential political fallout. Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) have been known to take a chunk of the Muslim votes through their social justice politics, which is seen by BJP as appeasement. Muslim anger is not going to bode well for them in the upcoming elections.

Kerala electoral politics could use Waqf as a key issue

Kerala elections will have Waqf as an issue not only because Muslims are politically influential and numerically significant in the northern districts but also because it could be used by the Leftist ruling dispensation as part of its larger social equality and secularism agenda. Kerala has a unique situation wherein both the ruling CPI-M and the main Opposition UDF led by the Congress party are both opposed to Waqf amendment. Also, remember that Kerala had some very unique court cases related to Waqf. One of them was some Christian families moving court against the declaration of their properties as Waqf property. Some of them joined the BJP in a public ceremony in Munanbam when the Waqf Bill was being debated in parliament. It is clearly indicative that Waqf is going to be a key electoral issue. 

Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: Two CMs opposed to the centre could use Waqf to gain political mileage

While the Muslim population is only 5.86 per cent of the total population, the kind of politics shaping up in Tamil Nadu is one of revival of Dravidian movement and prominence for minorities. It should be noted that some of the first protests against Waqf happened in Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu, and several places in West Bengal, where violence was reported this week. 

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has declared that Waqf amendment will not be implemented in her state. DMK leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin described Waqf Act as disruptive of communal harmony and vowed to challenge it in court. 

With a keen eye on the upcoming state elections, Stalin has been projecting himself as a challenger to the Centre, particularly on the issues of the delimitation of constituencies and the so-called 'Hindi language imposition' row. Waqf will easily become yet another issue for him to galvanise public opinion in his favour and against the BJP. 

Waqf properties in states can influence politics

Which states have the largest share of Waqf properties might play a role in the upcoming elections. 

As per government data, Uttar Pradesh has the largest share at 27 per cent, with 232,547 properties.  
West Bengal is among the top states, with 80,480 properties, followed by Punjab, which has 75,965.  

In the south, Tamil Nadu is among top, with 66,092 properties, followed by Karnataka with 62,830. Kerala has 53,282 properties and Telangana has 45,682.

States with large waqf properties will obviously see controversies around ownership, registration and disputes of Waqf properties. All these could become part of state electoral politics too.