Strong western disturbance to bring heavy snowfall, rain across Jammu & Kashmir
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Strong western disturbance to bring heavy snowfall, rain across Jammu & Kashmir")
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The disturbance will first affect the higher reaches of North Kashmir by afternoon, gradually expanding to cover most parts of Jammu and Kashmir by night.
A powerful Western Disturbance is set to impact Jammu and Kashmir beginning this afternoon, with meteorologists expressing near certainty that the system will be strong, intense and disruptive. Weather experts warn that current models may be underestimating its strength.
The disturbance will first affect the higher reaches of North Kashmir by afternoon, gradually expanding to cover most parts of Jammu and Kashmir by night. A very high probability of widespread snowfall has been forecast across the Kashmir plains, along with parts of Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Kathua districts.
Although the system is expected to weaken within 24 hours, snowfall intensity during this short window is likely to be significant due to exceptionally high moisture levels. The peak impact period is forecast from tonight through late afternoon tomorrow, with residual rain or snow possibly lingering in some areas until the morning of January 24.
Meteorologists say the event will mark a major atmospheric shift, triggering a prolonged cold wave across the region. “From tonight onward, the atmosphere will reset, and true winter conditions are expected to dominate Jammu and Kashmir for the remainder of the month,” officials said.
Snow accumulation in the plains will depend on snow density. Under dry snow conditions, accumulations could range from 4 inches to as much as 2 feet, with higher totals expected near the Pir Panjal belt, particularly in Shopian district. In the case of wet snow, accumulations may remain between 3 inches and 1.5 feet. Higher reaches could receive between 2 and 4 feet of fresh snowfall.
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In contrast, Jammu plains are likely to witness moderate to heavy rainfall, while strong wind gusts may accompany the system across several areas.
Authorities have warned of possible travel disruptions on January 23, with flights, train services and road connectivity likely to be affected. Landslides are also possible at vulnerable locations, particularly across the Pir Panjal range and Chenab Valley.
An official advisory has urged residents to plan travel carefully and avoid unnecessary movement during the peak impact period. Farmers have been advised to suspend agricultural operations, while all concerned departments have been asked to remain on alert.
Light rain or snowfall may continue at isolated places on January 24 and 25, followed by another spell of rain and snow around January 26–27. Weather conditions are expected to turn partly cloudy from January 28 onwards.
