Pahalgam terror attack: 32-year-old CIA document warning of nuclear war between India and Pakistan surfaces

A CIA document analysing the chances of a war between India and Pakistan in the 1990s has surfaced following the Pahalgam attack in Kashmir. The recently declassified National Intelligence Estimate titled India-Pakistan: Prospects for War in the 1990s, based on "developments since 1989", was released in 1993. It stated the factors that can trigger a full-blown war between the two countries and who is at risk of losing more.

Those who drafted the NIE found that there was about a 20 per cent chance of a war between India and Pakistan and that "leaders of both countries wanted to avoid war." The document stated at the outset that "India has no strategic interest in initiating a war with Pakistan." 

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It added that Pakistani leaders "probably believe another war could destroy the military or even the state", after it had lost previous engagements. According to the papers, both sides worried about the "economic costs of another war", which they believed would be "exorbitant". 

Hence, the two countries want to focus on "economic reform programs, want to constrain military spending, and fear a conflict would result in a cutoff of public and private foreign capital."

Despite the drafters finding that war is not on top of the list for both countries, they sounded the alarm about it happening owing to "flashpoints", such as the Kashmir issues, “internal meddling,” and “communal incidents”. This could ultimately increase the chances of war through “miscalculations, including intelligence failures that could trigger a premature attack.”

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It further warned that if the crisis escalates, it could lead to "the breakdown of nuclear deterrence", leading to the two sides deploying nuclear weapons. 

"Either military could develop hair-trigger responses that would escalate quickly to the nuclear level, and the time available to national leaders and external powers to defuse tensions would rapidly compress," it warned.

The CIA document further states that if there is a change in the military balance in India’s favour, things could go out of hand. Islamabad could feel “even more threatened by India’s growing military edge,” it states, adding, "which could have such destabilising consequences as Pakistan’s 'open' deployment of nuclear weapons."

According to reports, a probe has revealed that there were a total of five terrorists involved in the Pahalgam attack on tourists. Three of them are from Pakistan, and two are suspected to be local militants, as per an Indian Express report. The type of Urdu language they were using is spoken in certain parts of Pakistan, a security officer told the publication.

It further quoted a "highly placed source" as saying that one of the suspects was involved in an attack on an IAF convoy last year. A corporal rank personnel member lost his life in the incident. 

The two local militants are believed to have gone to Pakistan in 2017 and received training, returning to the Valley last year. "They were associated with the Jaish-e-Mohammed, and initial investigation suggests that the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish allied to execute this attack,” the Indian Express reported.

Officials have released the sketches of three terrorists, and a reward of Rs 20 lakh each has been announced.