Opinion: Will Meghalaya prefer BJP over Congress's Mukul Sangma?

In normal circumstances, neither the Congress nor the Bharatiya Janata Party would fret much over the electoral outcome of a small state such as Meghalaya. Both have larger national goals to achieve, and an assembly election in this northeastern state, which contributes just two seats to the Lok Sabha, should be no big deal for either of the national parties. But these are not normal circumstances. They are so far from normal that the parties’ tallest leaders, Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, have addressed public rallies there and aggressively wooed the voters.

What makes the situation so important?

For the Congress, Meghalaya represents one of the very few states in the country that it still rules. A loss here would be a double body blow. First, it would concede yet another state to the BJP. Second, it would embolden the BJP to pursue its political dominance in a region where until a couple of years ago, it was on the margins. The Congress has already lost vast ground across the country to the BJP, and while it is hoping to recoup in the coming State elections in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — and retain Karnataka — that possibility remains in the realm of speculation for now.

The party has been reduced to such a state that even small wins in small states are to seized upon with glee. It has already lost Assam, where the BJP handed over a drubbing in the last assembly election. The Congress had failed to form governments in both Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. It has little prospect of doing well in Tripura, where voting has already taken place. Meghalaya, then, is its only hope in the North-East.

As far as the BJP is concerned, the battle for Meghalaya is an opportunity for the party to expand its footprints even more dramatically in the region. If it wins, it will have hit two birds with one stone: snatching yet another state from the Congress, and reinforcing its ambitious plans for the North-East through its special purpose political vehicle, the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) which it heads.

The BJP does not have smooth sailing, though. The challenges are many, but the foremost is the demographic profile of the State. Meghalaya may derive its name from Sanskrit, meaning the ‘abode of clouds’, but this is not going to come to the party’s aid. Instead, the religious composition can cloud the BJP’s chances in the state.

More than 80 per cent of the population is Christian, and the religious affiliation is spread across the most predominant Khasi and Garo communities. The Hindu faith is the major one among minor tribes such as the Hajong and the Koch. Christians are not known to be the most ardent admirers of the BJP anywhere in the country, and it remains to be seen if the voters of this faith go against the currently prevalent trend elsewhere in the country.

BJP leaders, both at the national and state levels, believe they can reverse the situation in Meghalaya through appeals in favour of development and against parochial considerations. They also feel that the sting can be later managed through post-poll understandings with regional parties which are not just more rooted to the socio-cultural ethos of the state but also command a significant amount of loyalty among the Christian community. For instance, while the National People’s Party (NPP), founded by the late PA Sangma, is contesting on its own, the possibility of its aligning with the BJP after the election in government formation, cannot be ruled out. The NPP is fighting the electoral battle on its own for tactical reasons — it does not want to alienate the section of its voters that is uncomfortable with the BJP.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s cause has been somewhat helped by the migration of leaders in the past months away from the Congress. Besides, the party has kept away from contentious issues like the beef ban, which it belligerently promotes in other parts of the country, and even that of illegal migration with a view to appeasing the non-tribal voters.

The Congress is, on the other hand, banking on the very issue that is a challenge for the BJP — the demographic composition. It has over the years build a solid support base among the Christians and is not hesitant to exploit it. During one of his recent trips to the state, party president Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP of trying to ‘purchase’ the loyalty of the Church there.

Interestingly, while a good part of the local BJP leadership in Meghalaya has come from other parties, the Congress too established its base in the state in a similar fashion some 40 years ago, when an influential organisation, the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC), merged lock, stock and barrel, with the national party. The APHLC had spearheaded the formation of Meghalaya as a separate entity. From then on, the Congress had been on a roll, at times tying up with regional outfits to govern.

The 2018 election will, in many ways, be its first real test in many years. Given how the BJP upstaged the Congress in Manipur despite not even being the party with the largest number of seats, the state Congress leadership does not want to take chances with a hung assembly and is going all out to secure a clear majority.

In this regard, there is much at stake for the local leadership led by Chief Minister Mukul Sangma. Not only is he contesting from two constituencies, but his wife too is seeking re-election. Besides, the Chief Minister’s brother and the brother’s wife too, are contestants. To be fair to the Chief Minister, his is not the only family in the fray; the NPP too is involved in family politics. If all goes well for the Congress, the dynasty issue will not be relevant; if the party fares badly, then he will have to take the rap for brazenly promoting his family.

In the midst of all these calculations, are the real issues of development. Here, while the Congress is on slippery ground, the BJP cannot take it for granted that the promise of inclusive development and growth will necessarily lure voters to its side. Road connectivity in shambles, the primary education system in rural Meghalaya is creaking, basic healthcare in far-flung regions is poor, the power supply is erratic in small towns and villages, agriculture which is the mainstay for a large section of population is in a bad shape, and there is a grave scarcity of potable water. It can be argued that these malaises are not unique to Meghalaya. Even other states, including BJP-ruled ones, suffer similarly. The question is: Will voters buy the reasoning?

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)