Monsoon 2023 shows more uneven spatial distribution of rainfall in India, a trend likely to continue

This year’s Southwest Monsoon concluded in the last week of September with 73 per cent of the country receiving normal rainfall, but several districts show opposite trends. Around 18 per cent of the country recorded a rainfall deficit. This fluctuation in country-wide and district-specific monsoon data spans the four months of the Southwest Monsoon and presents a picture of changing monsoon dynamics.

Carbon Copy, a news portal that tracks developments in the climate and energy sector, drew a detailed analysis of how distorted the picture of “normal rainfall” distribution across the country. As per their report, the daily district-wise rainfall data from June to September suggest barely any sense of normalcy in the distribution of rainfall.

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Uneven rainfall distribution

As per the analysis of Carbon Copy and Climate Trends, only 6 per cent of the 81,852 districts recorded normal rainfall. The daily district-wise rainfall data for four months reveal the “volatile nature of normalcy”, wrote the outlet.

Over 60 per cent of the district-level daily rainfall observations registered large deficits to no rain, while 20 per cent of the observations showed large excess. Days registering large excess rainfall were the next most prevalent category, indicating a trend in uneven rainfall distribution across regions.

Averaging of uneven rainfall

August was the worst performing month, as more than 76 per cent of district rainfall registered large deficits to no rain. On the other hand, the excessive rainfall in July with sporadic events of very heavy to extreme rainfall in some areas resulted in an averaging outof a normal monsoon season.

Dr Madhavan Rajeevan, Former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences and Climate Scientist, also put light on this matter and said that monsoon variability is a real trend and has been increasing consistently.

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Regarding the Southwest Monsoon of 2023, Dr Rajeevan said, “When global warming happens not only means but also extremes will increase. This monsoon will be known for its large spatial and temporal variability and is typical of any year.”

Hence, the report deduces that spatial distribution of rainfall will be a common trend in the coming years and it will become important to adapt to this increasing variability.

(With inputs from agencies)

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