J&K faces looming water crisis amid prolonged rainfall deficit

Jammu and Kashmir is heading towards a potential water crisis as rising temperatures, erratic weather conditions, and a prolonged deficit in rainfall and snowfall continue to threaten agriculture, drinking water supplies, and hydroelectric power generation across the Union Territory.

With the paddy cultivation season fast approaching, concerns are growing over the steady decline in precipitation, particularly after nearly snowless winters and six consecutive months of below-normal rainfall across the region. Climate experts and officials warn that the changing weather patterns are a clear indication of the broader climate change crisis unfolding in the Himalayan belt.

According to data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), only five out of Jammu and Kashmir’s 20 districts recorded rainfall within the normal range between 81 and 119 per cent of average seasonal precipitation during the past three months. April rainfall figures further underline the worsening situation, with the Union Territory receiving only 86.5 mm rainfall against the normal average of 99.6 mm, marking a 13 per cent deficit.

“The clouds over Jammu and Kashmir seem to have forgotten their way home,” officials remarked while expressing concern over the persistent dry spell that began in November and has continued uninterrupted. Experts warn that if the dry conditions continue for another few months, remote and far-flung areas could face severe drinking water shortages.

The declining water levels are also beginning to affect rivers and streams across the region, posing a serious challenge for hydroelectric power generation. Authorities fear that reduced river discharge could significantly impact electricity production during the peak summer season.

Environmental observers say the current crisis is not an isolated event but part of a worrying long-term trend. Jammu and Kashmir has now witnessed seven consecutive winters with below-normal precipitation, resulting in shrinking water reserves and declining groundwater recharge. Experts have urged the government to immediately implement proactive water management measures before the situation escalates further.

The district-wise rainfall data for April paints an alarming picture, particularly for the south Kashmir districts. Shopian recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 67 per cent, receiving only 33.9 mm of rainfall against the normal 102.1 mm. Kathua followed with a 60 per cent deficit, while Anantnag reported a 46 per cent shortfall. Kulgam and Pulwama recorded deficits of 39 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, while Srinagar witnessed 32 per cent below-normal rainfall.

Kishtwar recorded a 26 per cent rainfall deficit, while Ganderbal, Bandipora, and Baramulla also remained below normal precipitation levels. Experts warn that the reduced rainfall in these districts is likely to sharply affect water levels in streams and the River Jhelum during the coming months.

However, a few districts recorded surplus rainfall during April. Samba registered the highest surplus at 96 per cent, followed by Rajouri at 46 per cent and Reasi at 40 per cent. Jammu and Udhampur each recorded 15 per cent excess rainfall, while Poonch, Kupwara, Ramban, and Doda also remained in the normal-to-surplus category.

Experts caution that despite isolated surplus rainfall in some districts, the overall precipitation trend remains deeply concerning for Jammu and Kashmir’s fragile ecology and water security. They stress that without immediate conservation measures and long-term climate adaptation planning, the Union Territory may face a severe water stress situation in the months ahead.