India’s retail inflation hits a 6-year low as food prices cool

India’s retail inflation hits a 6-year low as food prices cool

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Business & Economy: The moderation in inflation was primarily driven by a decline in food prices. Food inflation fell to 1.78 per cent, the lowest since October 2021.

India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 3.16 per cent in April, from 3.34 per cent in March. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation since July 2019, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on May 13.

The moderation in inflation was primarily driven by a significant decline in food prices. Food inflation fell sharply to 1.78 per cent in April from 2.69 per cent in March—a decline of 91 basis points. This is the lowest level of food inflation recorded since October 2021.

The steep decline is attributed to lower inflation in vegetables, pulses, fruits, meat and fish, personal care items, and cereals.

Rural inflation slowed more sharply, falling to 2.92 per cent in April from 3.25 per cent in March. Rural food inflation dropped to 1.85 per cent from 2.82 per cent. In urban areas, inflation dipped to 3.36 per cent from 3.43 per cent, while urban food inflation saw a more pronounced decline to 1.64 per cent from 2.48 per cent in March.

Kerala witnessed the highest inflation at 5.94 per cent year-on-year, followed by Karnataka (4.26 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (4.25 per cent) and Punjab (4.09 per cent), while Telangana and Delhi saw the lowest inflation at 1.26 per cent and 1.77 per cent, respectively.

Among key components, housing inflation remained stable at 3.00 per cent compared to 3.03 per cent in March, while education inflation ticked up to 4.13 per cent from 3.98 per cent. Health inflation remained flat at 4.25 per cent.

But notably, fuel and light inflation advanced to 2.92 per cent, from 1.42 per cent the previous month. Transport and communication inflation rose to 3.73 per cent from 3.36 per cent.

RBI’s target holds steady

The Reserve Bank of India, which has been mandated to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side, has cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points in two tranches (February and April) to 6 per cent underpinned by easing inflation.

The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent, Q2 at 3.9 per cent, Q3 at 3.8 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.

With inflation trends remaining well within the target range, market expectations for a potential rate cut in the upcoming meeting of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June have strengthened.