Ukraine's nuclear gamble- Why did Ukraine give up the third largest nuclear arsenal?

Ukraine once held the third-largest nuclear arsenal on earth. It once had nearly 5,900 nuclear warheads, it was more than Britain, France, and China combined, only fewer than the US and Russia. There were 176 intercontinental missiles in underground silos that could have struck anywhere on the globe. It also had 44 strategic bombers, each was capable of launching nuclear missions. There were 1900 strategic warheads for long-range strike and 4000 tactical ones for battlefield strikes.

How did Ukraine have such a huge nuclear arsenal?

On December 26, 1991, the Cold War ended with the fall of the USSR. Along with it ended the decade-long ideological war between the East and the West. The fall of the USSR can be attributed to many reasons, from the failed attempt by Mikhail Gorbachev to rejuvenate the Russian stagnating economy, the movement for independence in Soviet Republics, to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster. All led to a chaotic dissolution of the Soviet Republic and the birth of 18 different states. Ukraine was one of those 18 states. It did not build any nuclear weapons. Soviets had stationed them on the Ukrainian soil to target the West, and Ukraine inherited them.

Why did Ukraine give up its nuclear arsenal?

Even though the missiles were stationed on Ukrainian soil, it did not have operational control over them. Most of the missiles were ageing and unstable. Ukraine lacked the money and expertise to maintain them, and the memories from the recent Chernobyl disaster were fresh. Moreover, Russia retained the launch codes and control systems for the long-range missiles; Ukraine could only use the tactical ones. The international community had started pressuring Ukraine to give up that arsenal. Bill Clinton, who was then the President of the United States, offered Ukraine $175 million to disarm. The deal was lucrative for a newly formed Ukraine.

In 1994, Ukraine made the unprecedented decision to relinquish its nuclear weapons under the Budapest memorandum, based on security assurances from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Ukraine agreed to transfer all of its nuclear warheads to Russia in exchange for sovereignty and territorial integrity. It acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Between 1994 and 1996, Ukraine completed its disarmament.

How did the gamble turn out?

Not even 20 years had passed, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, which was a violation of the Budapest memorandum. In 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is growing intensely as of now. However, during the signing of the Budapest memorandum, Russia was concerned about the possible expansion of NATO to its border. In 2008, at the Bucharest Summit, NATO member states agreed that Ukraine would become a member and following the annexation of Crimea, it became almost certain. NATO has been actively supporting Ukraine in defending against the current invasion by Russia. Since the beginning of 2025, the Russian intensity of attack has increased with a persistent barrage of missiles and drones. The scenario now carries a situation of war fatigue and a potential division within its leadership and with its allies