US Presidential elections 2024: 'Nostradamus' Lichtman drops his prediction; here's what he thinks

Finally weighing in on the 2024 US Presidential elections, Allan Lichtman, who has earned the title of "Nostradamus of US presidential elections," says that incumbent President Joe Biden has an edge over former President Donald Trump.

LichtmanhasacquiredthenicknameofNostradamus,a16th-century French astrologer, whose forecasts are still well-recognised today. Lichtman had accuratelypredicted the outcome of nineoftheprevious10elections.

With the use of a methodhe created, dubbed "13 Keys to the White House," Lichtman, a history professor at the American University in Washington, has predicted the outcome of almost every US presidential election since 1984.

"The 13 keys are simple to use: if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election—but if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win," the American University website description of the method reads.

Lichtman told NDTV that he has not made a final prediction yet, but according to the '13 keys to the White House' model which has been correct since 1984 - 10 elections in a row, a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election as he is just down by just two keys.

Current polls suggest that President Joe Biden is trailing behind former President Donald Trump.

Hestressedthatitistooearlytopredictthelikelyconclusionofthe2024campaignbetweenBidenand Trump.

What are the '13 Keys to the White House'?

Here are the 13 keys to the White House as written on the American University website:

1. Party mandate:After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest:There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency:The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party:There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short termeconomy:The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long termeconomy:Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change:The incumbent administrationeffectsmajor changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest:There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal:The incumbent administration is untainted by majorscandal.
10. Foreign/military failure:The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success:The incumbent administration achievesa majorsuccess in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma:The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma:The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
    
    (With inputs from agencies)