US midterms: Did Trump lose young voters, women and minorities? Here's how Americans voted

The 2026 US midterm elections have delivered a significant political message about America's changing electorate. While Democrats made sweeping gains, the voting patterns across racial, ethnic, age and gender groups reveal how Donald Trump's Republican coalition faced challenges in retaining the support it had built during the 2024 presidential election. From young voters and Black Americans to Hispanic communities and college-educated voters, several demographic groups moved towards Democratic candidates. The findings from the Associated Press' AP Voter Poll, alongside other national voter surveys and exit-poll analyses, offer a closer look at how Americans voted and the groups that helped shape the outcome.

Young voters: A significant shift towards Democrats

Young Americans emerged as one of the clearest Democratic constituencies in the 2026 midterms. According to the AP Voter Poll, approximately 70 per cent of voters under 30 supported Democratic candidates in their local US House races, compared with roughly 30 per cent who backed Republicans.

This marked a substantial change from the 2024 presidential election, when young voters were approximately evenly divided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. However, young voters accounted for only around 10 per cent of the electorate, limiting the overall electoral impact of their political shift. The findings also suggest that opposition to Trump was an important factor. Around six in 10 voters under 30 said expressing opposition to the president was one reason behind their congressional vote.

Black voters: Democrats regain ground

Black voters remained one of the Democratic Party's strongest constituencies, with the 2026 findings suggesting that Republicans struggled to retain the gains Trump had made in 2024. Approximately nine in 10 Black voters supported Democratic House candidates, compared with roughly eight in 10 who backed Harris in 2024. The shift was particularly visible among Black men. Only around one in 10 Black men supported Republican congressional candidates in 2026, compared with approximately one-quarter who had voted for Trump in 2024. State-level contests also reflected this support. In Georgia, approximately nine in 10 Black men and Black women backed Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in the gubernatorial election.

Hispanic voters: Another important shift

Hispanic voters also moved towards Democrats, reversing some of the Republican gains recorded during the 2024 presidential election. The AP Voter Poll found that roughly six in 10 Hispanic voters supported Democratic candidates in their local House races, while approximately one-third backed Republicans. The change was particularly significant in Texas, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race. Roughly six in 10 Hispanic voters in the state supported Talarico, compared with approximately three in 10 who backed Paxton.

Hispanic women were another important constituency. A separate national voter survey reported by The Wall Street Journal found that Latino women supported Democratic congressional candidates by a 36-percentage-point margin, compared with a 21-point margin in 2024.

Asian American voters: A key part of the Democratic gains

Asian American voters and other communities of colour also featured prominently in the Democratic resurgence. A post-election survey of 10,141 voters, including 2,130 Asian American and Pacific Islander voters, found that Asian Americans had swung decisively towards Democrats. Researchers highlighted both their participation and their changing political preferences.

The findings are important because Asian American voters are not a politically uniform constituency. Their political preferences can vary considerably across ethnic communities, generations, immigration backgrounds and economic circumstances. It is therefore important not to treat Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders as a single voting bloc or assume that the national trend applies equally to every community.

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Indian American voters: A distinct political story

Indian Americans deserve separate attention within the broader Asian American electorate. A Carnegie Endowment for International Peace survey conducted with YouGov in October 2026 found that 62 per cent of Indian American citizens intended to support Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 19 per cent who favoured Republicans. Among Indian Americans in states holding Senate elections, 63 per cent supported the Democratic candidate, compared with 21 per cent for the Republican.

However, these figures represent pre-election voting intentions, not verified final voting results. The survey covered 1,000 Indian American adults, including 861 US citizens in the voting analysis. The findings nevertheless suggest that the Republican gains among Indian Americans during the 2024 presidential election had not translated into sustained support for Republican congressional candidates.

Women voters: Democrats strengthen their advantage

Women remained an important Democratic constituency in the 2026 midterms. Exit-poll analysis reported by The Wall Street Journal found that women favoured Democratic congressional candidates by 16 percentage points, twice their eight-point Democratic advantage in the 2022 midterms.

The gender divide was also evident among men. Republicans, who enjoyed a 14-point advantage among male voters in 2022, were ahead by just one percentage point in 2026. This suggests that the Democratic gains were not limited to women or traditional minority constituencies. The party also made substantial progress among male voters.

Rural versus urban voters: Geography still matters

The urban-rural divide remained an important feature of American electoral politics, although younger voters offered an interesting exception to traditional voting patterns. According to Tufts University's Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), 79 per cent of young urban voters backed Democratic House candidates, compared with 73 per cent of young suburban voters.

Even among young rural voters, Democrats secured 57 per cent support against 37 per cent for Republicans. This was a notable reversal from 2024, when 60 per cent of rural young voters supported Trump, compared with 38 per cent who backed Harris. These figures concern young voters specifically and should not be confused with the voting preferences of the entire rural and urban electorate.

College versus non-college voters: The education divide narrows

Education continued to shape voting preferences, but Republicans lost ground among some traditionally supportive groups. The Wall Street Journal's analysis of the national voter survey found that college graduates supported Democrats by a 25-point margin, compared with a 10-point advantage in 2022. Meanwhile, Republicans retained an advantage among voters without college degrees, but that margin narrowed from 12 percentage points in 2022 to six points in 2026.

White men without college degrees remained one of the Republican Party's strongest constituencies, although the GOP advantage among this group also declined substantially. The results suggest that educational attainment remained a significant political dividing line, but it was not enough to protect the Republican coalition from broader electoral shifts.